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The Iowa State Cyclones and West Virginia Mountaineers arrive at Morgantown with equal 3 - 2 records as each has also managed to go 1 - 1 in Big 12 play to start the season.
After a convincing 49 - 24 win over TCU at home last weekend, the Cyclones will hit the road for 3 of their next 4 games starting this weekend against the Mountaineers.
Clones QB Brock Purdy continued to progress into one of the better Big 12 signal-callers with his performance last weekend against the Frogs. Purdy tossed the rock for 247 yards and a pair of TD passes while going over the century mark in the running game adding another pair of scores in the ground game.
The Mountaineers are coming off a disappointing loss to Texas last weekend with turnovers and sloppy play leading to a 42 - 31 defeat against the 11th ranked Horns.
As a result, the Cyclones find themselves listed as double-digit favorites on the road in Morgantown with the line setters showing no respect for the home team in this Big 12 affair.
Cyclones hit the road for 3 of their next 4 conference outingsAfter losing 5 of the first 6 meetings to West Virginia since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 conference, the Cyclones put that history behind them and won last year's meeting 30 14 in Ames.
Head Coach Matt Campbell helped end a 4-year run of losses to the Mountaineers last season and that win was part of the early run to the 7 - 1 finish for the Cyclones last year. Now that Iowa State has appeared in back-to-back post-seasons, the goal is to obviously get back there again and build on two straight 8-win campaigns.
The Cyclones will be following up this trip to Morgantown with a stop in Lubbock, TX. to face Texas Tech and life will continue to throw tough games their way. After their homecoming game with Oklahoma State, the Cyclones will get their bye and then go to Norman to face Oklahoma and return home to take on Texas the next weekend.
That's life in the Big 12 baby, and those will make for some damn good games coming as the conference games keep coming up the pipe.
As long as Clones QB Brock Purdy is upright and able to walk, the Iowa State season has really just begun because the dude can ball! You need a tough 3rd down run to move the chains or a quick strike inside on 3rd and long? Purdy can handle it, and he has shown why he is spoken of highly in this offense. Let's face it, without his ability to scramble and keep the offense on the field, the defense sure appreciates some more time to spend on that bench.
The Iowa State defense is certainly considered one that keeps QBs guessing with movement and disguises to throw someone off, but as long as your offense knows what you want to do there is the success to be had against the Cyclones. I would call them a bit overrated to be honest with you because they have had a schedule that wouldn't intimidate too many defenses either.
The Cyclone defense ranks 75th against the pass surrendering 230.8 YPG and they're allowing 348 YPG overall which has them ranked 47th in the land.
Purdy leads the 7th best passing attack in the nation that puts up 327.6 YPG, and their 37.6 PPG is good for 21st in the country in scoring. While leading the team with 1,578 passing yards, Purdy is also leading the team in rushing with 203 yards ahead of Johnnie Lang. Lang has 39 carries to Purdy's 43 and has gained 182 yards with 3 rushing TDs and 1 through the air out of the backfield.
Mountaineers looking to bounce back from Texas defeatAfter the harsh 38 - 7 loss to Missouri early this season, the Mountaineers rebounded with wins over N.C State and Kansas before the loss to Texas last weekend.
Some saw the writing on the wall for a struggle to come after the disappointing 29 - 24 win over Kansas being that the Jayhawks are really just having a down season. In addition, if we subtract that James Madison affair to open the 2019 campaign, the Mountaineers defense has really struggled to keep anyone at bay this season from their 4 FBS outings.
Iowa State Game Information https://t.co/tP5IKeJcC2— West Virginia Football (@WVUfootball) October 8, 2019
Sam Ehlinger and the Horns made moving the ball look easy last weekend against the Mountaineer D, and 3 of the 4 turnovers all led to something on the other side to boot.
Junior QB Austin Kendall threw 4 picks and 3 of them ended up being costly. He tried to atone for it with 2 of his 3 TD passes late in the game but at that point, the Horns had the score and the clock in their favor.
West Virginia's running game was stuffed all day, as leading rusher Kennedy McCoy only brought in 30 yards on the ground with the team only gaining 96 rushing yards overall.
Wideout TJ Simmons had the only day worth mentioning, as he tucked in 7 passes for 135 yards and a score, and the rest doesn't look good, on paper or if you saw it transpire on the field.
- Over is 7-0 in Mountaineers' last 7 conference games.
- Over is 5-1 in Mountaineers' last 6 home games.
- Over is 8-3 in Mountaineers' last 11 games overall.
- Cyclones are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on field turf.
- Cyclones are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 conference games.
- Cyclones are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I find myself in unfamiliar territory not thinking dog with a double-digits with the home team, but I just see the Cyclones as the more dominant team with the offense that can roll in so many ways.
Brock Purdy will be able to steadily move the ball at will, and I foresee a 44 - 24 type of win for the away team in big fashion.
West Virginia's defense is going to have to prove to me that they can do more than just shut down James Madison because they are the only team that struggled against West Virginia this season. Really? Do I need to say much more than that?
Points are coming here too, so expect that total play to come in as well, but...
Iowa State -10 is the play on the line.
Prediction: Iowa State -10
Full-Game Total Pick
It depends on your book and when you get it, but I see this total that opened at 52 already starting to move up to 53 at a handful of sites. I am not surprised in the least because I expect the Iowa State offense to put it in cruise control and just run West Virginia into submission.
As I said, I see 68 points coming in this contest from my 44 - 24 outlook, so that clears this number by a good bit as far as I see it
The Over 53 is the play on the total and if it gets even higher don't sweat it.
Prediction: Over 53