Featured Video from Scott Reichel
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Central Michigan Chippewas, Preview, and Odds
NCAAF: Saturday, October 12, 2019, Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan, 3:00 pm EDT
The New Mexico State Aggies are still without a win this year as they continued with poor offensive displays in the latest home defeat to Liberty. They have six losses this season and eight straight when we consider the last campaign. Also, the Aggies are in a seven-game losing streak on the road. Central Michigan, on the other hand, continues to impress in front of their fans, and now they are at a 3-3 record with three consecutive home victories. These schools have never met before, and the Chippewas are favorites to win this encounter.
The Aggies fell short to Liberty after a weak opening halfNew Mexico State displayed their best defensive performance of the season against the Liberty Flames, but it wasn’t enough to avoid a 20-13 defeat. The biggest reason for this loss is an ineffective first half in which the Aggies failed to get on the scoreboard. The visitors controlled the game since the beginning, and although the hosts tied it at 13 middle through the fourth quarter, Liberty’s Joshua Mack set the final score with a 4-yard touchdown. Sophomore quarterback Josh Adkins struggled to find the end zone as he completed 20 of 30 passes for 265 yards and threw a couple of picks. OJ Clark and Tony Nicholson were Adkins’ favorite targets, combining for 152 yards on 11 receptions. Senior running back Jason Huntley scored his third touchdown of the year after rushing for 75 yards on 16 carries.
Central Michigan has a top 30 defense against the run that is allowing 100.3 yards per game, so Huntley will find it hard to penetrate and do damage on the ground. The Aggies have one of the weakest rushing offenses in college football with just 102.8 yards per contest. The Chippewas are more lenient when it comes to passing as their secondary is letting 264.2 yards per game. New Mexico State is averaging 248.5 passing yards so far, and Adkins will have a solid chance for another 250+ yard display. This time around, though, he will need to throw a TD or two to keep his team alive, or the hosts will have no trouble to secure an easy win.
The Chippewas set season-high in total yards in a comfortable victory over Eastern MichiganThe Central Michigan Chippewas continued with fine home form as they beat the Eastern Michigan Eagles in a game they dominated from the start. The Chippewas had 587 total yards in opposite to the Eagles’ 285 and kept the visitors to just three points in the opening half. Junior quarterback David Moore completed 15 of 24 passes for 279 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Starting QB Quinten Dormady is cleared to play after recovering from a knee injury, but head coach Jim McElwain will likely give another start to Moore as he doesn’t want to push Dormady and risk another setback. Running back Jonathan Ward had the best game of the campaign as he collected over 200 all-purpose yards with two rushing and one receiving touchdown. Kalil Pimpleton led all the receivers with 112 yards and a score on five catches.
Central Michigan recorded season-high 308 yards on the ground, and considering they are facing one of the worst defenses in the country that is allowing 225.5 yards to the opposing runners, Jonathan Ward should easily have another 100+ yard show. Still, the Chippewas’ primary offensive weapon is passing as they average 249.7 yards per contest. In case the running doesn’t work, they can turn to Moore, who can exploit New Mexico State’s weak secondary that is letting 263.8 yards to the opposing receivers.
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
- 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games
- 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
New Mexico State:
- 0-4 ATS in their last four games in October
- 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall
- 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
New Mexico State has one of the most inefficient offenses in college football that is averaging miserable 18.2 points per game. At the same time, the Aggies have the second-worst defense in the country that is allowing 42.7 points per contest, and only UMass is allowing more (46.7). The Aggies allowed 55+ points in each of their three road games this season, and given that Central Michigan scored 38+ in all three home victories thus far, I am backing the hosts to destroy the visitors here.
The Chippewas are averaging 30.4 points per game, but they are far more efficient in front of their fans. Jonathan Ward will have an easy job against a disastrous New Mexico’s D against the run while Central Michigan shouldn’t have problems to record 500+ total yards here.
Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas -10.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is set at 55.5, and New Mexico’s poor offense is a problem if you’re going to back Over. However, the Chippewas did concede at least 16 points in three home games this year. Considering they will have a great opportunity to add 500+ yards on the other end with 40+ points on the scoreboard, this matchup is promising for betting on the Over. I don’t think the visitors will score more than one TD on the ground, but they can score a couple through the air as Central Michigan’s secondary is not very good.
Prediction: Over 55.5 (-110)