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Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons
NCAAF: October 12, 2019 at 12:00 PM EST
Toledo has reeled off four straight wins after losing to a Power 5 conference team Kentucky in their season opener. They have played three close games in a row and they have the nation’s 9th ranked rushing offense putting up an average of 264.8 rushing yards per game. Last season at home in a big-time shootout the Rockets beat the Falcons 52-36.
Bowling Green is just the opposite of Toledo, as they have lost four games in a row after winning their season opener. They have played a tough schedule, but their defense has struggled a tad giving up at least 52 points in three of their last four games. The Falcons were embarrassed in their last game in a 52-0 shutout loss at the hands of a 9th ranked Notre Dame team.
The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games between these MAC rivals.
Koback leads the wayThe Rockets are led by their rushing offense and that unit is anchored by Bryant Koback, who ranks 7th in the nation in rushing yards. He has rushed for at least 177 yards in two of his last three games and on the season is averaging a more than legit 6.9 yards per carry. QB Mitchell Guadagni and Shakif Seymour each have at least 260 rushing yards but on the season, they have not faced one team that ranks in the top 87 in the nation in run defense. However, in this game, they face the lowest-ranked run defense they have faced all season with Bowling Green only ranking 122nd against the run giving up an average of 223.2 rushing yards per game. No wonder the Rockets are HUGE road favorites in this I-75 rivalry game.
Toledo is a run-first team but Guadagni has passed for at least 200 yards in three of his last four games and on the season has a TD to INT ratio of 7:2. Bowling Green has a better pass defense than run defense but that is not saying much only ranking 91st in the nation defending the pass. The last time the Rockets hit the road to face Bowling Green it was in the 2017 season when they beat them 66-37. In the last two games facing the Falcons, the Rockets have put up 118 points.
Avoiding a 5th straight blowoutIn their four-game losing streak where they have been blown out in every game, Bowling Green has been outscored 201-27. The “strength” of their offense, if you can call it that, is their run game that ranks 74th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Davon Jones is their lead rusher on the season with 264 yards and he has not rushed for more than 59 yards in his last four games. Two other players have rushed for at least 150 yards, but the Falcons have not faced teams with a good run defense. I mean, in the game before their last one they lost to Kent State 62-20 in their MAC opener and Kent State ranks dead last in the nation in run defense giving up an average of 278.4 rushing yards per game and the Falcons only rushed for 154 yards.
Bowling Green QB Grant Loy(192 yards 2 TD 1 INT) will likely get the start in this game after Darius Wade’s injury, but the Falcons only have two players that have over 115 receiving yards and the team ranks 113th in the nation in passing yards per game.
The Bowling Green Falcons are:
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
- 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
- 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games
The Toledo Rockets are:
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 MAC games
- 14-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Toledo has one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, but they only rank 115th in the nation in total defense. Still, Bowling Green gave up 62 points facing Kent State, who have the nation’s 121st ranked defense. Yeah, this game will get ugly quick. The Rockets will rack up a ton of rushing yards while the Falcons will not be able to move the chains much. Toledo will easily win this game and cover the spread sending Bowling Green to their 5th straight blowout loss.
Prediction: PICK Toledo
Full-Game Total Pick
The total had gone Under in five straight between these teams at Bowling Green before going well Over in the last game there between these rivals. The total for this game is 64.5 and Toledo may score more than that just by themselves. This game will be a big time blowout and the Rockets will run up the score. The solid pick in this MAC game has to be the Over.
Prediction: PICK Over