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UNLV Rebels vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
NCAAF: October 12, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST
UNLV got off to a good start to the season winning their opener, but they have since lost four in a row. They not only lost four in a row, but they have been blown out in four straight games. The Rebels have struggled on both sides of the ball in this losing streak and it is no wonder they are a big road underdog with a defense that ranks 114th in the nation.
Vanderbilt is also at 1-4 and they were blown out in their last game. They ave played a tougher schedule than UNLV with already three games in SEC play where they are 0-3 and have been outscored 127-50. Their one win was out of conference facing Northern Illinois and the Commodores have to be happy to be out of conference again for this game.
This is the first-ever meeting between these teams. With several SEC games on the schedule Vandy likely has to win this game to have any shot at a bowl game.
Run the rockUNLV only ranks 107th in the nation in passing yards per game and a decent 52nd in rushing yards per game and they need to run the rock in this game. Not only because that is their strength on offense but also because Vandy only has the nation’s 112th ranked run defense. Charles Williams leads the team in rushing at 529 yards per game but after three games of at least 143 yards he only combined for 74 in his last two games. In the last game, he did rush for 57 yards averaging 5.2 yards per carry in a 38-13 loss to Boise State where the Rebels had to pass the ball in the 2nd half to attempt a comeback. His last two games have come facing teams with solid run defenses, which the Commodores do not have.
QB Armani Rodgers (393 yards 2 TD 3 INT) missed the Boise State game due to injury and he is questionable and if he cannot go Kenyon Oblad (567 yards 3 TD 3 INT) will get the start. It is key the Rebels get the ball to Williams often and they give up a big lead early, which they could not do in their last game against Boise State trailing 17-0 at the half.
Run the Rock 2While Vandy’s rushing offense is not a great one they also need to run the rock facing a UNLV run defense that only ranks 117th in the nation. Ke’Shawn Vaughn had rushed for 130 yards in two straight games before rushing for 69 and only averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the Commodores last game, which was a 31-6 loss to Ole Miss. Riley Neal has nearly 1,000 passing yards this season with a TD to INT ratio of 4:2 but only has two TD in his last three games. He needs to get the ball to his leading WR in Kalija Lipscomb, who has at least 68 receiving yards in his last four games.
Vanderbilt has played two teams that are currently undefeated in Georgia and LSU and in the LSU game Neal passed for over 200 yards and Vaughn rushed for 130 yards. The Commodores have failed to cover the spread in their last six games, and can they change that facing a reeling UNLV squad?
The Vanderbilt Commodores are:
The UNLV Rebels are:
- 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October
- 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Both teams have big-time issues against the run and look for a lot of rushing yards in this game. Vandy has played, by far, the tougher schedule and it is hard to go against any SEC team that is facing a team that is not from a Power 5 conference. The Commodores will have the better game on both sides or the ball and even with a big spread they will cover winning their 2nd game of the season and handing UNLV their 5th straight loss.
Prediction: PICK Vanderbilt
Full-Game Total Pick
Both teams will look to run the ball early and often in this game and both teams will be successful doing so, especially Vanderbilt. They also have the better passing attack, which will help them put up points in this game. The Commodores will be lighting up the scoreboard in this game at home against an overmatched UNLV team so in this non-conference affair take the Over.
Prediction: PICK Over