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Wyoming vs. San Diego State Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 10-12-2019

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#205 Wyoming
Cowboys 3.5
#206 San Diego State
Aztecs -3.5

Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 10:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Wyoming

4 - 1

4-1
ATS
2-3
O/U
30
PPG
20
OPPG

San Diego State

4 - 1

3-2
ATS
0-5
O/U
20
PPG
11
OPPG

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Wyoming Cowboys vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Where and when: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California, Saturday, 10:30 pm EST

The Mountain West Conference will take center stage late Saturday night as the Wyoming Cowboys will travel to SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California, to face the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs have won three of the last four meetings amongst these teams; However, the Cowboys have picked up wins in three of the last four contests in San Diego. PointsBet currently has the Aztecs favored by 4 points.

San Diego State was able to atone for a conference loss at home versus the Aggies of Utah State in week five in picking up a huge road win over the Colorado State Rams last weekend. Furthermore, they remain in second place within the West division Mountain West, behind the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and just a game ahead of the third-place San Jose State Spartans, to whom they have a road matchup with next weekend. With that being said, there are huge incentives for the Aztecs to have a solid showing at home versus the Cowboys, with the most important being to remain relevant in fiercely competitive conference.

However, San Diego State has not been consistent at all in front of their home crowd. In fact, aside from dropping three of four meetings at SDCCU Stadium versus Wyoming, the loss to the Aggies in week-five was their third defeat in four games at home. Their offense has left much to be desired as the unit is racking up just over 300 yards of total offense per game while posting 20.6 points per.

On the other hand, their defense is dominant in allowing just forty-six rushing yards per game to opponents. Aside from giving up twenty-three points to Utah State, the unit has surrendered a total of just thirty-four points to their remaining four opponents in 2019.

The Aztecs will certainly need yet another huge performance on the defensive front as Wyoming enters this contest putting up an average of just under 250 yards per contest on the ground. Duel-threat QB Sean Chambers continues to keep the chains moving as he not only has six scores on the season, but has thrown for three touchdown passes in his last two games. On the other hand, the freshman is completing less than 40% of his passes on the year.

Despite averaging thirty-one points per game, Wyoming is ranked as one of the worst in total yardage per outing (96th) and passing yardage (128th). Nonetheless, the team may also be without tackle Alonzo Velasquez along with Guard Logan Harris, who are questionable with upper body and knee injuries.

It will be interesting to see how Wyoming’s defense will game plan against an up-and-down offense for the Aztecs. It is a fact that the unit is much more stout in stopping the run (83 yds/game, 10th) as opposed to the pass (329 yds/game, 127th). With that being said, they must also show and prove up front if they are to slow down the rushing attack for San Diego State.

Also, their defense must also get penetration throughout the contest to disrupt the timing for Aztecs senior Ryan Agnew. Of course, San Diego State may indeed be licking its chops to challenge a secondary that has been so generous to opposing teams passing attacks.

Aztecs badly need a win at home

And while their defense has certainly been the tip of the spear in the Aztec’s success in 2019, they will enter their contest with the Cowboys without senior safety Kyree Woods, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL injury versus the Colorado State Rams last weekend. Nonetheless, with the Cowboys only throwing for a tad over 100-yards per game, expect Woods’ backup to remain close to the line of scrimmage to provide extra run support.

As stated, Wyoming has punished teams on the ground this season while entering this contest fresh off a 374-yard performance on the ground versus the UNLV Rebels last weekend. However, look for San Diego to be up to the task as they are currently the top-ranked team in the nation in stopping the run in addition to giving up just over eleven points per game.

Offensively, Agnew, as pointed out, must be able to capitalize on passing opportunities versus the Cowboys, particularly with their secondary allowing over 300-yards passing on average to opponents this season. This also means that sophomore receiver Kobe Smith, who has scored three touchdowns in the Aztecs’ last two outings while racking up his second straight 100-yard receiving game versus Colorado State, will need to step up for a passing attack that ranks only 111th in the country (187 yds/game).

Cowboys may be short-handed up front on Saturday

Chambers along with Titus Swen has been a double-threat in the backfield for the Cowboys offense. Aside from Chambers racking up close to 1,000-yards both within the rushing and passing department, freshman Swen has also shown signs of playmaking ability while coming off his best outing of the year in accumulating 136 yards on fourteen carries (9.2 yds/rush) in addition to a rushing TD versus UNLV Rebels.

And despite having two weeks to prepare for the Aztecs thanks to a bye, Wyoming will possibly be without two members of their offensive line due to injury, as pointed out earlier. Of course, this may very well put them in a terrible position in which to pick up a win.

Nonetheless, the Cowboys have been stellar away from home dating back to their 2018 as they have picked up wins in three of their last four contests. And despite their outright loss on the road to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on September 21st, they were able to cover the points in their fourth straight road game. The under has been the result in three straight road games for Wyoming as well.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I will back the Aztecs in this instance for two reasons.  On one hand, while the rushing attack may indeed be bottled up by a stout defense front or Wyoming, Agnew and company can possibly find a wealth of success versus a porous secondary for the Cowboys.  On the other hand, the Cowboys have injuries up front that can certainly prevent Chambers and Swen from playing their best.  

And while the Aztecs have not been the most dominant team at home recently (1-3 in last four outings), expect them to cover the points versus the Cowboys thanks to their ability to stop the run in addition to taking advantage of defensive secondary problems for Wyoming.  

 

 

Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs -4

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Again, each of these defenses have truly been dominant all season long.  Of course, they are both strout in stopping the run, which happens to be a strength for both teams.  It is for this reason that I see this game as one that will be low-scoring and competitive throughout.  In other words, expect both squads to fight for four quarters for control of the line of scrimmage. 

Important to note that the final score for the Aztecs versus their five opponents for 2019 has surpassed the thirty-eight point mark only once.  The under has also been the play in three of the last four games for the Cowboys. In all, while thirty-eight points happens to be very low, expect the scoring to be at a minimum as both defenses will make their presence known early and often.

Prediction: Under 38

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A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa brought his passion for analytics in each of these areas to OUR TEAM here at StatSalt and it will certainly benefit you in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.

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