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Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
NCAAF: Saturday, October 13, 2018, Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, Michigan, 12:00 PM ET
The Toledo Rockets are playing in a hot and cold form this year as they win one and lose the next game and that was the case in the previous week when they recorded a win over Bowling Green following a defeat to Fresno State. On the other, the Eastern Michigan Eagles are in a poor run of four losses but all of them were quite narrow including two after overtime, so this could be a good chance for the Eagles to bounce back.
The Rockets scored 21 points in the final quarter to secure a win over the Falcons
Toledo recorded their third home win in four games as they beat the Bowling Green Falcons thanks to an excellent performance in the fourth quarter. The Rockets were never down in this clash but Bowling Green was close until the final quarter when Bryant Koback scored three rushing touchdowns in space of just six minutes. Toledo posted 288 yards on the ground which is an improvement considering their season average of 196.0 yards, while Eastern Michigan doesn’t defend against the opposing runner well as they are allowing 208.8 rushing yards per contest. The Rockets have the tenth-best offense in the country as they are averaging 46.4 points per game but the Eagles are allowing 24.5 points and the visitors will not have an easy job here.
Toledo quarterback Eli Peters was named MAC West Offensive Player of the Week.
Toledo has now had 2 different quarterbacks win that award this year. Mitch Guadagni won it after the Nevada game. pic.twitter.com/rpIRQYFWnC
— Jordan Strack (@JordanStrack) October 8, 2018
Eli Peters is the No. 1 quarterback option for the Rockets, and the sophomore has 35 completions on 71 attempts for 436 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception, for the rating of 121.3. Peters had a fine game in a win over Bowling Green as he completed 17 passes on 35 attempts for 184 yards and three touchdowns for the passer rating of 64.5.
The Eagles suffered another tight defeat
Eastern Michigan opened the season with a pair of victories but they lost the next four games, all by seven-point difference or less. This was an Eagles team that appeared to be an early contender in the MAC. However, the Eagles lost in overtime two consecutive games and then they fell short to Western Michigan Broncos, 27-24 as they conceded a couple of touchdowns in the final quarter. Eastern Michigan has a top 40 passing offense that is averaging 269.8 yards per contest, while Toledo has one of the worst defenses against the passing as they are allowing 271.2 yards per game, so the hosts will try to exploit Toledo’s secondary on this one.
Mike Glass III is the No. 1 quarterback option for the Eagle and the junior has 46 completions on 77 attempts for 657 yards, six touchdowns, and an interception, for a rating of 154.5. Glass completed 15 passes on 24 attempts for 155 yards and a touchdown and the passer rating of 63.4 in a loss to the Broncos.
Notable Trends
Eastern Michigan:
- 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss
- 8-2 ATS in their last ten games played in October
- 13-4 ATS vs. an opponent with a winning record
Toledo:
- 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win
- 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in total
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Toledo won all ten of the previous head-to-head encounters, while the Rockets were victorious in all five meetings at the Rynearson Stadium. However, the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven duels, and I think it’s time for the Eagles to finally end their unlucky streak of four narrow defeats and get a win on this one. Eastern Michigan conceded just 40 points in the previous two home games and if they manage to keep the visitors to under 25 points here, they will have a decent opportunity to snap Toledo’s winning run against them.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan +1.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is set at 63.5 points and although six out of the previous ten H2H duels produced 64 or more points, the latest two clashes produced 55 and 35, respectively. Considering Eastern Michigan’s home defense, I don’t think we will see more than 63 points here. Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 home games, while under is 7-3 in Eagles previous 10 games in October.
Prediction: Under 63.5
