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Buffalo vs. Toledo,
10-20-2018 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#339 Buffalo
Bulls -1
#340 Toledo
Rockets 67

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Buffalo Bulls

6 - 1

5-2
ATS
5-1
O/U
33
PPG
21
OPPG

Toledo Rockets

3 - 3

2-4
ATS
4-1
O/U
42
PPG
34
OPPG

Buffalo meets Toledo on Saturday at noon from The Glass Bowl. The Bulls are a surprising 3-0 in the MAC after defeating Akron, 24-6 on Saturday. The Rockets are coming off a 28-26 defeat at Eastern Michigan this past Saturday to put them at 1-1 in the MAC. These teams have not met since the 2013 season.

Bulls are doing it on both sides of the ball

Buffalo is off to a 6-1 start for the first time since 1959. They are already bowl-eligible but head coachLance Leipold has his sights a lot more including a MAC title game. In their 24-6 win over Akron, the Bulls held the Zips to just 235 yards of offense. Linebacker Khalil Hodge led Buffalo with 12 tackles including 1.5 for loss and a QB hurry in the victory.

On offense, quarterback Tyree Jackson struggled some, completing 16 of 30 for 212 yards with one TD and one pick. He did amass 57 yards rushing and a score as the Bulls rushed for 223 yards and passed for 212. This was not an easy win as Akron kept the game close until Buffalo put the game away with a one-yard run from Jackson early in the fourth quarter.

Having a balanced offense has been key for the Buffalo. They rank 56th in rushing yards per game (181.9ypg) and 77th in passing yards (222ypg), while averaging 403.9 yards per game. They don’t overwhelm you in either category but the Bulls manage to average 33.1 points per game, while holding teams to 21.7 points (36th). The defense is great against the pass (172.9ypg), while giving up 163 rushing yards per game (171st).

The run defense is a concern against a very good running team in Toledo (201.5ypg). Buffalo has a concern at running back with Kevin Marks (530 yards, 7 TDs) listed as questionable due to an ankle injury. That could put more pressure on Jackson, who has 1,543 passing yards with 18 TDs and five picks (57%).  Cornerback Cameron Lewis leads the defense with three interceptions but he is also questionable with an undisclosed injury.

A big test for Toledo

The Rockets are sitting in fourth place behind Northern Illinois (4-0), Western Michigan (3-0), and Ball State (2-1) in the MAC West. Toledo had a chance to send the game into overtime last week against Eastern Michigan, but couldn’t convert on a 2-point conversion with 20 seconds left in the game. Mitchell Guadagni ran for a 20-yard TD run on fourth-and-10 to nearly a complete a comeback from being down 28-3.

The good news is that the Rockets held the Eagles to zero points in the second half. Guadagni also had 134 yards rushing on 28 carries and completed 12 of 27 for 147 yards with a TD. The bad news is that they committed 16 penalties for 130 yards and allowed 412 total yards. They struggled to contain Mike Glass III, a dual-threat quarterback who ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns. That was in one half because he was injured and did not return for the second half.

Toledo was held to well under their average yards per game against Eastern Michigan (376). They average 436.7 yards per game (4tth) and 201.5 rushing yards (39th), while putting up 43 points per game (13th). Even though the offense was below-average against the Eagles, they’ve been carrying the defense all season.  The Rockets allow 454 yards (112th) per game, including 256.5 in the air (103rd) and 197.5 on the ground (101).

Guadagni leads the way with 904 passing yards, 11 TDs, two interceptions (58.2%), 387 rushing yards and three rushing TDs.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Even if Buffalo doesn’t have their leading rusher, they have a very talented freshman in Jaret Patterson, who had 91 yards and a TD in their last game and 121 yards on Oct. 6 against Central Michigan. Toledo can’t really stop the run or the pass so I expect Buffalo to have their way up front thanks to a powerful offensive line. Defensively, Buffalo is solid and they’ll key on stopping Guadagni, who is the entire Toledo offense. Take the road dog.

Prediction: Buffalo +2

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

That is a high total but before the Akron game, Buffalo has gone over in five straight games. Toledo had also gone over in five straight games before their loss to Eastern Michigan. Both have talented offenses and Toledo has a defense that has allowed 28 or more points in five straight games.

Prediction: Over 67

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

The Bulls need to get off to a fast start. That’s important in any road game. Tyree Jackson is coming off a mediocre game and should excel on the ground and in the air against the Rockets. I like Buffalo to lead at the half.

Prediction: Buffalo -1/2+05

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

Toledo gave up 28 points to Eastern Michigan in the first half in their last game. They held them scoreless in the second half so something is up with their preparation defensively. Go over in the first half.

Prediction: Over 31.5

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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