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California Golden Bears at Oregon State Beavers
NCAAF: Saturday, October 20, 2018, Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon, 4:00 PM ET
The California Golden Bears opened the season with three straight wins but they are now in a poor form of three consecutive defeats and are hoping to return to the winning ways in Oregon. On the other hand, the Oregon State Beavers are even in a worse for at the moment as they suffered four losses in a row and will be desperate to prevent the fifth straight defeat.
The Golden Bears scored season-low seven points in a loss to UCLA
California is struggling lately and just when everybody thought they will bounce back against the poor UCLA, the Golden Bears disappointed again in a 37-7 defeat. The Golden Bears’ defense was disastrous in defending the ground as they allowed three touchdowns, while their offense couldn’t compensate for bad display on the other end. California is averaging 178.8 rushing yards per contest and they are facing one of the weakest defenses in the country when it comes to defending the opposing runners as Oregon State is allowing even 265.5 yards per game. I expect the Golden Bears to exploit that fact and hurt the hosts on the ground.
Sophomore quarterback Brandon McIlwain is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 713 yards with two touchdowns and seven interceptions for the Golden Bears. He had a forgettable game in a loss to the Bruins, throwing for 168 yards and a couple of picks, so McIlwain needs to step up on this one and provide more passes for his receivers, while Patrick Laird will likely serve as a running QB.
The Beavers suffered the fourth straight defeat
Oregon State is at the bottom of the Pacific 12 North with a 1-5 record after losing the fourth consecutive game, this time to the Washington State Cougars, 56-37. The Beavers conceded 28 points in each half and although they collected just 33 yards fewer than the Cougars (530-497), their defense completely let them down on this one. Oregon State recorded 276 rushing yards and five touchdowns and they have the top 30 rushing offense that averages 211.8 yards per contest, while California allows 164.3 yards to the opposing running backs, so I don’t think the Beavers will be able to post another 200+ yards on the ground.
Sophomore quarterback Conor Blount is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 1017 yards with seven touchdowns and an interception for the Beavers. He didn’t record a touchdown in a loss to Washington State and Blount could experience another scoreless game as California has the 11th best offense against the passing that allows only 169.8 yards to the quarterbacks.
- 2-8 ATS in their last ten games overall
- 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss
- 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference games
- 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
- 15-19 ATS in the last 34 games played on the road
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
California won four out of the previous seven H2H encounters including three out of the last four, while the Golden Bears were victorious in one out of the past two meetings at the Reser Stadium. The rivalry between these teams usually produces plenty of excitement and of course, emotions, and even though the Golden Bears are playing better this year, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight duels. Still, Oregon State’s defense is awful this season as they are allowing 47.0 points per contest, the 3rd worst defense in college football, so I am backing the visitors to record fourth win in five H2H games.
Prediction: California Golden Bears -7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The last six H2H encounters produced 60 or more points and considering the Beavers’ leaky defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if they conceded up to 40 points on this one. Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings; over is 4-1 in the previous five clashes in Corvallis, while over is 9-1 in Beavers last ten games overall.
Prediction: Over 58 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Golden Bears are the favorites here but I don’t think they will dismantle the hosts; however, I would be surprised if they don’t win by at least seven points, so backing California to win with a margin between seven and 12 points seems as a good bet.
Prediction: Winning Margin: California Golden Bears 7-12 (+350)
Half-Time Side Pick
California showed better displays in the opening 30 minutes this season as they were up at halftime in four of their six games so far, so I am backing the visitors to create at least five-point lead after the first half.
Prediction: California Golden Bears -4.5 (-110)
Half-Time Total Bet
Even five of the Beavers’ six games this season produced more than 29 points at halftime, and although that wasn’t the case in the Golden Bears’ last two games, I am backing the rivals to combine for at least 30 points in the opening 30 minutes.
Prediction: Over 29 (-110)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
California is a better team and they will likely prove by winning both halves, and even though the odds at -134 are not quite attractive, backing the Golden Bears to win both halves is a solid bet on double result.
Prediction: Double Result: California Golden Bears – California Golden Bears (-134)