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Fresno State vs. New Mexico,
10-20-2018 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#361 Fresno State
Bulldogs -13
#362 New Mexico
Lobos 55.5

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 7:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Fresno State Bulldogs

5 - 1


New Mexico Lobos

3 - 3


Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos

Where: Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

When: Saturday, October 20, 7:30 PM. ET.

The New Mexico Lobos will be trying to bounce back from their loss to the Colorado State Rams when they take on the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday night.

Bulldogs Going For Fifth Consecutive Win

The Bulldogs have been on a roll since they lost to the Minnesota Gophers in their second game of the season, winning their last four games. They will try to make it five wins in a row when they face the Lobos on Saturday.

Fresno State has been very good offensively, averaging 36 points per game, which is 30th in the country. However, their defense has been their strength this season and they are holding opponents to 13.5 points per game, which is second in the league.

The Bulldogs defense has been particularly good over their last two games, holding their opponents to three points each. Fresco State’s defense will face a tough test against the Lobos, who average 39.2 points per game, but their offense should be able to get them over the hump in this game.

Marcus McMaryion leads the way for the Bulldogs’ offense, completing 71.4 percent of his passes for 1,578 yards, 11 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Fresno State’s running game hasn’t been as effective with the team averaging 132.7 rushing yards per game, which is 107th in the country.

With the Lobos giving up 171.8 rushing yards per game, the Bulldogs will likely try to establish the run early to give them a balanced offense, making it difficult for the Lobos to go after their quarterback.

Lobos Going For Second Win In Three Games

The Lobos lost a close game to Colorado State in their last game after allowing the Rams to kick a game-winning field goal after turning the ball over on downs in the final minute of the game. They will try to rebound from the loss with a win over the Bulldogs, which will be their second win in three games. A win over the Bulldogs will also give them their fourth win of the season, inching them closer to becoming bowl eligible.

New Mexico will need to play well on both sides of the ball to get the win over Fresno State on Saturday because the Bulldogs are very sound on offense and defense, while the Lobos have struggled defensively.

With the team averaging 198.5 rushing yards per game, expect to see a lot of Tyrone Owens, who leads the team with 424 rushing yards and six touchdowns. If they are able to run the ball effectively, Sheriron Jones, who has completed 59 percent of his passes for 955 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions to find a few holes to exploit in Fresno State’s secondary.

The Lobos, who give up 271.3 passing yards per game, will have to do a better job defending the pass when they face the Bulldogs, who average 270.8 passing yards per game. If they can force the Bulldogs to beat them on the ground, they will have a good chance of winning this game.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

The Lobos have struggled against the spread this season and are winless in their last four home games. They have also lost five of their last six conference games and eight of their last 11 games overall. The Bulldogs have done a great job against the spread, winning nine of their last 11 road games and 22 of their last 27 overall, giving them the edge over the Lobos.

Prediction: Fresno State Bulldogs -13.5

Full-Game Total Pick

The total has gone under in 15 of Fresno State’s last 18 conference games, in seven of their last nine road games and in their last six October games. The total has also gone under in five of New Mexico’s last six games in October and in six of their last eight conference games, making the under the best bet here.

Prediction: Under 52.5

Full-Game Prop Bet

The Bulldogs have a very good offense that averages 36 points per game. However, they have averaged 24 points in their last two games and are going up against a defense that has given up 28.7 points in their last three games. Fresno State will score a lot, but they will not go above 33.5 points in this game.

Prediction: Fresno State – Total Points Under 33.5

Half-Time Side Pick

The Bulldogs are averaging 16 points per game in the first half of their last three games, while the Lobos average 14 points. The fact that the Bulldogs are holding opponents to 6.3 points per game in the first half of their last three games gives them the edge over the Lobos.

Prediction: Fresno State Bulldogs -7

Half-Time Total Bet

With the Lobos giving up 18.7 points per game in the first half of their last three games and the Bulldogs allowing 6.3 points, the total is likely to stay under because the Bulldogs will likely hit their season average for the first half while the Lobos struggle to score more than seven points in the half.

Prediction: Under 26.5

Half-Time Prop Prediction

The Lobos have a good offense, but they will have a difficult time scoring against a Fresno State team that is holding opponents to 6.3 points in the first half. The Bulldogs will also fail to score in the first six minutes because they struggle offensively on the road, scoring 14 fewer points per game than they do at home.

Prediction: Will Either Team Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game? No Even

Bosun Akinpelu

I am very passionate about sports, so I kind of feel bad that I get paid to do this. As someone who minored in Mathematics, I have a lot of faith in numbers, and make my picks based on stats and not emotions. I've been successfully picking winners for quite some time, so stick with me if you want to get paid.


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