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Memphis vs. Missouri,
10-20-2018 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#397 Memphis
Tigers 74
#398 Missouri
Tigers -9.5

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 4:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Memphis Tigers

4 - 3


Missouri Tigers

3 - 3


Memphis Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers

Where and when:  Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri, Saturday, 4:00 pm EST

The Memphis Tigers will travel to Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, to take on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon at 4 pm EST.  Memphis suffered a deflating loss versus the Knights of Central Florida last Saturday as they surrendered a 30-17-point halftime lead as they were shut out 14-0 in the second half en route to the 31-30 loss, which was their second in three games.  Missouri lost to the top-ranked team in the country in the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road in an SEC matchup last Saturday by a 39-10 score as they only collected 212 yards total for the game while giving up 564 yards to the Tide along with 184 yards on the ground in what was their third straight defeat.  The last time these teams met was on October 2, 1999 as Missouri pulled out the 27-17 road win as they covered as two-point favorites.

Tigers fade after opening quarter versus Bama

Missouri fell back into mediocrity in the second quarter as the Tide shut down their offense for the remaining three quarters of the game on their way to a victory last Saturday.  Missouri has dropped three straight games after beginning the season at 3-0 as Drew Lock would once again play shaky for the Tigers as he threw for 142 yards, a TD, along with two picks in the game while Missouri had three turnovers for the day versus a Tide defense that allowed them only a tad over 200 yards.

After winning their first three games by an average of 12 points, Missouri has dropped their last three by an average of 15 points per loss.  They are also winless in the SEC West division and while Memphis is certainly not a conference opponent, they could provide Missouri some much-needed confidence before the Tigers battle a tough Kentucky Wildcats squad next weekend as they resume their SEC schedule at home.  The bad news for the Tiger’s offense, which is averaging just 24 points per game in their last few outings, could be without the leader of their receiving corps in Emmanuel Hall (430 yards, 3 TD’s) who is suffering a groin injury and uncertain to play.

Memphis loses a heart-breaker versus 9th ranked UCF

Memphis, despite having two fumbles for the game, dominated the Knights of Central Florida in their last matchup at home due mainly to 281 rushing yards for the game led by Darrell Henderson who finished with 199 yards and a touchdown.  Brady White threw for 209 yards in the matchup as the passing game averaged 7.2 yards per catch.  The 9th ranked Knights played an ugly game on both sides as their offense went only two for 12 on third downs while the team collected 102 yards in penalties.

While Memphis has averaged 40 points per game in their last four outings, they have allowed teams to score 30 or more points in three of those games.  They are now 1-3 in the AAC west and currently occupying the fifth place slot with four conference games remaining, most notably against SMU and Houston, the first and second place teams within the division.  Nonetheless, losses to Tulane and Navy will not serve them well as they are currently in the third and fourth place slots within the division, respectfully.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

While Missouri needs a win desperately, they will be facing a motivated Memphis squad this week that came just shy of pulling off an upset versus a Central Florida team that has ran all over their opponents this year.  With that being the case, I will back the Memphis Tigers in this matchup to come out with a very convincing win at the game’s conclusion.  Again, Memphis has not played well either on the road or at home and their inconsistencies will rear its head once again versus a tough Memphis team that will pressure Lock consistently throughout the contest.

Prediction: Pick:  Memphis Tigers -370

Full-Game Total Pick

I will back the under in this contest as I believe that Memphis, who will certainly come in with confidence after hanging tough with a top ten team in UCF last Saturday, has the better defense as they are ranked in the top 50 in total yards allowed per game along with pass yards allowed per game with 193.  And for a Missouri teams that regularly exceeded the 40-point mark in their first three games of the season, has only scored over 30 points once in their last three outings.  Again, with Lock struggling along with the Missouri defense looking to have a much better day than they have had recently, look for the under to be the strongest play.

Prediction: Pick: Under 70.5

Full-Game Prop Bet

With Hall possibly being a no go in this contest in addition to Lock simply not playing well lately, I will back the Memphis Tigers in this contest to cover the spread.  And while QB White for Memphis has not been overly outstanding, he has been solid in maintaining the 41st ranked Memphis passing attack that puts up 264 yards per game.  Memphis’ rushing attack is solid as well in averaging 275 yards per game to which Missouri will certainly have problems in stopping despite being 24th in the country in giving up 102 yards per game; Nonetheless, they were hammered last weekend by the Crimson Tide on the ground.  In all, there are many positives for Memphis in this matchup which allows me to think that the Tigers will have a great day on the road versus a struggling Missouri squad.

Prediction: Pick: Memphis Tigers +9

Half-Time Side Pick

I will back Memphis in this instance as they have simply proven themselves to be a much better team this year than Missouri.  Of course, they will be aware of how desperate the home team will be in getting a win to temporarily cure their ills; However, I see the road team dominating a shaky Missouri team throughout the first half while also obtaining a commanding lead at the half.

Prediction: Pick: Memphis Tigers +6

Half-Time Total Bet

The pass happy offense for Missouri has certainly been stagnant lately as they went from averaging well over 40 points per game in their first three contests to only 24 points since then while losing their last three games, as stated.  Memphis has not played well on the road this year as they have had difficulties getting their offense going early in their two matchups on the road this season.  With that being the case, look for the under to be the play after the first half has concluded as both defenses will shut down what each offense does very well.  For Memphis, this will mean that the rushing game will have difficulties running the ball while for Missouri will have their issues versus a Memphis defense that is ranked 33rd in the country in passing yards allowed per game.

Prediction: Pick: Under 36

Half-Time Prop Prediction

Again, Memphis will indeed play well enough to win in this contest, however, look for the home team to possess a slim edge at the half in points as Missouri will somehow pull themselves together in which to cap off some successful drives during the first half.  Of course, their offense will gain a bit of confidence as the game wears on, however, look for them to struggle on the defense end due to Memphis’ ability to move the chains due to their balanced offensive attack.

Prediction: Pick: Missouri Tigers -280

Falepa Emme

A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa's passion for analytics in each of these areas will certainly benefit the reader in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.


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