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Oklahoma vs. TCU,
10-20-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#383 Oklahoma
Sooners -7.5
#384 TCU
Horned Frogs 61

Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 12:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Oklahoma Sooners

5 - 1

2-4
ATS
5-1
O/U
47
PPG
27
OPPG

TCU Horned Frogs

3 - 3

1-4
ATS
1-4
O/U
28
PPG
20
OPPG

After a week off to think about their three-point loss to the hated Texas Longhorns, the Oklahoma Sooners return to the gridiron to take on the Texas Christian Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.  While the Sooners have been fuming, they have also been putting in work . . .

TCU dropped a three-point contest of their own this past weekend, falling at home to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  These two squads have played 18 times previously, with OU winning 13 of those contests and four straight in the series.

Sooners Ready to Rebound

Oklahoma looked like a legitimate playoff contender (and still may be) through the first five weeks of the season, beating four of their five opponents by double digits. The one victory that was not by double digits was a seven-point overtime victory at home over the Army Black Knights and may have exposed a chink in their armor.

Against the Longhorns, the Sooners would not quit, and despite entering the fourth quarter down three touchdowns, OU scored 21 unanswered points to tie things up at 45 apiece only to succumb to a Texas game-winning field goal with nine seconds left.  The teams put up video game like numbers with Kyler Murray throwing for 304 yards and four scores against just one interception and allowing UT’s quarterback Sam Ehlinger to throw for 314 yards and a couple of scores himself.  The squads combined for 1,033 total yards with Oklahoma accounting for 531 of them.

Despite the week off, the Sooners jumped in polls all the way up to No. 9 in the country. They currently sit at 2-1 in the Big 12, a game-and-a-half behind the conference leading ‘Horns, but by running the table they will end up in the conference title game, likely setting up a rematch against the Texas team that handed them thier loan defeat. There would be a strong possibility that the winner of that game would advance to the college football playoff.  The team is putting up 524 yards a game but is going up against a Horned Frog defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game. If the Sooners offense can get off to a quick start, it could be a long day for the home side.

Horned Frogs Hoping to get back on Track

Texas Christian’s once promising season has hit the skids. It all started with a 12-point loss in the House that Jerry built against an Ohio State side that is a national title contender. The squad looked good in defeat, however, and gained respect nationally for their effort. They followed that up with a 15-point loss to Texas in Austin, and have split 17-14 games in their last two contests, a win at home vs. Iowa State, and a loss this past weekend in Fort Worth to Texas Tech.

In their setback against the Red Raiders, In the setback against the Red Raiders, the team allowed a touchdown with 7 minutes remaining in the game to fall down by three points and neither side would manage to score again. It was an uncharacteristic performance by both offense as the game was expected to be a shootout. It was not of course, but the Horned Frog defense came to play, allowing just 353 yards, which in Big XII action, is like allowing 100 yards in the SEC. The offense out gained TTU by 58 yards but it was all for naught.

The team averages 414 yards per game and is going against a defense allowing about the same (421). Their secondary that only allows 182 per contest will be tested against an OU passing attack putting up 315 yard a game.  TCU now sits at 1-2 in conference play and just 3-3 overall. Reaching a bowl is still likely, but even so it will be considered a bit disappointing for a Gary Patterson side that had hoped to be competing for a conference crown.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

While both teams are coming off of three-point losses, it is abundantly clear that the Sooners are the stronger side and have more to play for.  There is always the chance that the Sooners that went to overtime against Army could show up, but TCU does not run the wishbone and will not be able to keep that ball out of that potent OU offense’s hands that long.  Expect Oklahoma to score early and often on the way to a comfortable win.

Prediction: Pick: Oklahoma -7.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Texas Christian has showed that is has big play potential, even if it has not been apparent recently.  That could change when they run into an Oklahoma side that just gave up 48 points in their last contest.  Of course, the Sooners are quite capable of scoring as well and should put up some big numbers of their own.  These two offenses just combine for a formula that says take the Over.  The Over is 5-0 in the last five games where Oklahoma is coming off of a contest in which they scored over 40 points and it has hit seven of the last eight times TCU lost against the spead.

Prediction: Over

Chuck D

Chuck Dowling is a 30-something University of Florida J-School alum that lives in his mother’s basement. Just kidding... there are no basements in Florida (the ground is too moist). He has been in the “biz” for his entire adult life and specializes in NCAA football and basketball, as well as soccer, boxing, and MMA. When not writing, Chuck moonlights as a high school athletics radio and internet-television broadcaster.

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