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Malone Stadium in Monroe Louisiana is the setting for this Sun Belt Conference game between the visiting Texas State Bobcats (1-5) and host UL Monroe Warhawks (3-4). The Bobcats are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Georgia Southern and the Warhawks had a HUGE win over Coastal Carolina. Kickoff time is scheduled for 7:00 pm Eastern.
The Bobcats Calling Card is Their Defense
Texas State averages 333 total yards per game. 202 of those yards are through the air and 131 yards on the ground. This Bobcats team scores an average of 22 points per game.
It’s hard to tell why Freshman QB Tyler Vitt isn’t starting but maybe he will against Monroe. We don’t really know and the only reason he was even in last week’s loss to Georgia Southern was because QB Willie Jones’ helmet came off. Four Bobcats have over 100 yards rushing with the leader being Jones with 219 yards and a TD. Junior RB Anthony Taylor Jr has 176 yards and a TD. Senior TE Keenen Brown leads all Bobcats receivers with 370 yards and four TD’s.
— Texas State Football (@TXSTATEFOOTBALL) October 12, 2018
The Bobcats offense converts 31 percent of its third downs, 42 percent of their fourth downs and have scored on 14 of their 17 Red Zone possessions this season.
The Bobcats calling card is their defense. This team allows 199 passing yards and 167.7 rushing yards good for 366 total yards per game. Texas State has allowed 19 TD’s and teams convert 39 percent of their third downs and 55 percent of their fourth downs. Texas State has five sacks and four interceptions with one of them a pick six. Opponents have scored on 19 of their 23 Red Zone possessions this season.
UL Monroe Has a Potent Offense
UL Monroe averages 411 total yards per game with 244 passing yards and 166 rushing yards. The Warhawks score an average of 24.6 points per game.
Junior QB Caleb Evans has thrown for 1622 yards with a completion rate of 61 percent. Evans has thrown eight TD’s, six interceptions and has been sacked 11 times this season. Evans has also rushed for 333 yards and five TD’s this season.
Senior RB Derrick Gore leads the Warhawk rushing attack with 404 yards and five TD’s. Junior RB Austin Vaughn has rushed for 175 yards and a TD. Senior WR Marcus Green has 503 receiving yards and five TD’s including a 79 yard TD reception. Junior WR R.J. Turner has 363 yards and one TD.
UL Monroe converts 42 percent of their third downs, 50 percent of its fourth downs and have scored on only 19 of their 29 Red Zone possessions this season.
Defense doesn’t seem to be the Warhawks forte as they are allowing an average of 503 total yards per ballgame. They allow 312 passing yards and 205 rushing yards a game. This defense has allowed 33 TD’s this season and opponents convert 50 percent of its third downs and 57 percent of their fourth downs. UL Monroe has a whopping 20 sacks this season and are led by LB David Griffith with four sacks. The Warhawks have four interceptions and teams have scored on 28 of their 30 trips to the Red Zone this season.
- Warhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Warhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This one might be a fun game to watch and I would much rather see the 11 than that little hook on the end of the 11. Oh well, What we want to hope for is some money to come in on Texas State and get that spread dropped down to maybe 10-10.5. Now that would be ideal but we can still live with the 11.5 if we have to.
UL Monroe is a better offense than the Bobcats are a defense and I don’t see them having any problem scoring on the Bobcat defense. On the flip side I don’t see the Bobcats having too many problems scoring on the Warhawks either. I like the 20 sacks by UL Monroe and they will get to the Bobcats QB and cause him headaches on Saturday night.
Play the 11.5 if you have to but please wait and see the line moves before making your bet.
Prediction: UL Monroe -11.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Here’s the real play in this game. Both of these teams can score points and even though the Bobcats pride themselves on their defense UL Monroe is too much for them to handle. They can score so many different ways that it wouldn’t surprise me if they hang 40 points on this Bobcat defense. I also don’t see why the Bobcats can’t hang 21-28 points on the putrid Warhawk defense.
Play that Over and cash that ticket Saturday night!
Prediction: Over 59 points