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Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers
NCAAF: Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 3:30 PM EST
Louisiana evened their record at 3-3 in their last game and they have won their last two games. While they are only 1-1 in Sun Belt play they are all alone in first place in the West Division as the only team not under .500 in conference play, the Ragin Cajuns blew up for 66 points in their last game and they have a solid run game, but their defense only ranks 117th in the nation giving up an average of 37.3 ppg.
Appalachian State has won four in a row since their season-opening loss to Penn State where they gave a scare to the Nittany Lions only losing by seven points. Since the Penn State game the Mountaineers have outscored their opponents 204-32. The team is balanced and they rank in the top 10 in the nation in ppg and points allowed per game. Appalachian State is 2-0 in Sun Belt play and being in the East Divison they are with Georgia Southern and Troy, who are both at 3-0 in conference play. In their last game they had their fourth straight blowout win.
Not a bad offensive performance
In their last game, Louisiana was at home and they laid a 66-38 beat down on New Mexico State where they had a pretty game on offense. By pretty good I mean they ranked up 759 yards and were balanced with 415 passing yards and 344 rushing yards. Andre Nunez passed for 315 yards with five TD and was not picked off and five players had at least 48 receiving yards led by Ernest Patterson (114 yards 1 TD). Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas combined for 201 rushing yards and Mitchell had three TD. Regas and Mitchell are the two leading rushers for the Ragin Cajuns and they are each averaging at least 6.7 yards per carry and have combined for with 11 TD.
Mitchell and Ragas lead the strength of the Cajuns, which is the run game, which ranks 14th in the nation in rushing yards per game. This duo has a tall task in this road game facing an Appalachian State run defense that ranks 12th in the nation.
Defense gets it done
Appalachian State was on the road in their last game and they played pretty good defense in their 35-9 win over Arkansas State. They had 390 yards in the game and while they gave up 336 yards, they did force three turnovers and did not commit one. Zac Thomas passed for 144 yards with two TD and no INT and he also rushed for 76 yards with most of those coming on a 62-yard scamper. Darrynton Evans rushed for 115 yards with a score and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. Thomas has not passed for over 185 yards in any of his last three games and in that span he has five TD and two INT.
— App State Football (@AppState_FB) October 11, 2018
The win over Arkansas State was a costly one for the Mountaineers, as they lost leading rusher Jalin Moore for the season with an ankle injury. Evans is the 2nd leading rusher and he will get the bulk of the carries in this game and in his last two games he has combined for 176 rushing yards. Louisiana only ranks 103 in the nation defending the pass and 116th defending the run.
The Appalachian State Mountaineers are:
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
- 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall
The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
While giving a lot of points in this game, Appalachian State is still the pick in this Sun Belt matchup. They will face a Louisiana that lit up the scoreboard for 66 points in their last game, but in the four games since losing to Penn State in the opener they have only given up an average of eight points per game. On top of that the Mountaineers have covered the spread in their last nine games. The Ragin Cajuns will have a tough time scoring while Appalachian State will not and the Mountaineers will easily win this game and cover the spread.
Prediction: PICK: Appalachian State
Full-Game Total Pick
With the defense that Louisiana has, Appalachian State will light up the scoreboard so take the Over in this Sun Belt affair. Their defense can also help the offense put up points thanks to turnovers.
Prediction: PICK: Over