Bowling Green Falcons at Central Michigan Chippewas
NCAAF: Saturday, November 10, 2018, Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan, 3:00 PM ET
The Bowling Green Falcons are in a horrible form as they suffered six consecutive defeats and are at the bottom of the Mid-American East standings with a 1-8 record. On the other hand, the Central Michigan Chippewas have the even worse 1-9 record and they also lost six in a row, so this is going to be a battle of the weakest teams in the MAC.
The Falcons nearly snapped a five-game losing streak
Bowling Green welcomed the Kent State Golden Flashes with hopes of ending the five-game losing run and they had a 28-28 result late in the final quarter but the visitors scored a touchdown with just under two minutes to go to book a 35-28 victory. The Falcons recorded 231 passing yards with three touchdowns but a top 40 passing offense that averages 266.3 yards per contest will have a much harder job against the 3rd best passing defense in the country that allows only 148.6 yards to the opposing receivers. Bowling Green will likely have to turn to their runners but they are one of the worst teams in college football when it comes to running the ball, so it’s going to be a long day for the visitors here.
Sophomore quarterback Jarret Doege is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 2285 yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions for the Falcons. Doege had a fine display in a loss to the Golden Flashes as he posted 207 yards for three touchdowns and an interception but the upcoming matchup with Central Michigan is surely not a favorable one for Bowling Green’s QB.
The Chippewas scored season-low seven points in a loss to the Eagles
Central Michigan was in a poor run of five straight losses and they were looking to snap that negative run on the road against the Eastern Michigan Eagles but fell short, 17-7. The Chippewas were kept off the scoreboard in three quarters and they totaled just 138 yards in opposite to the Eagles’ 349, so this defeat came as no surprise. Central Michigan has the second-worst offense in the country that is scoring devastating 15.4 points per contest but their chance could be Bowling Green’s disastrous defense against the rushing which is the second from the bottom and is allowing even 320.9 yards to the opposing runners.
Sophomore quarterback Tony Poljan is completing 51.7 percent of his passes for 625 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions for the Chippewas. Poljan had a forgettable display in a loss to the Eagles as he recorded 39 yards and an interception as Central Michigan’s passing offense was practically non-existing and it will likely remain that way against the Falcons.
- 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in November
- 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game
- 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
- 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five H2H meetings but Bowling Green is allowing 46.3 points per contest and even though they are facing one of the least efficient offenses in the country, I am backing the hosts to exploit the ground and hurt the Falcons. Central Michigan will have minimal chance to do damage through the air but they will probably shut down the visitors and rely on the running in order to get a victory, so I am going with the hosts on this one.
Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas -7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The second-worst defense is meeting the second-worst offense which can be tricky in predicting the total but under is 5-0 in the last five duels, while under is 4-0 in Chippewas previous four games overall, so I am backing a low-scoring affair and under here. Under is 7-3 in Falcons last ten games in November and under is 4-0 in Falcons previous four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Prediction: Under 50.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Chippewas are among the least efficient teams in college football but they will have an easier job against the leaky Bowling Green’s defense and I believe that the hosts can beat the rivals by a touchdown difference. The +375 odds on Central Michigan to defeat the Falcons with a margin between seven and 12 points is certainly an attractive bet.
Prediction: Winning Margin: Central Michigan Chippewas 7-12 (+375)
Half-Time Side Pick
Central Michigan lost the previous six games but they didn’t trail at halftime in two out of the last four, which is a clear sign that they are improving slightly and I think it’s the right time for the Chippewas to have a lead after the opening 30 minutes, so I am backing them to cover the -4 spread.
Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas -4 (-105)
Half-Time Total Bet
Only two of Central Michigan’s ten games in this season produced more than 25 points at halftime and although the situation is somewhat different with Bowling Green’s games, I don’t expect to see plenty of points in the first 30 minutes. Just like I predicted under in the end of this tilt, I am also going with under 25.5 points in the first half.
Prediction: Under 25.5 (-110)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
It’s going to be a tight affair which could go either way but the Chippewas are showing signs of improvement lately and I already backed them to win in the end and at halftime, so I am going with a double result at solid -120 odds.
Prediction: Double Result: Central Michigan Chippewas – Central Michigan Chippewas (-120)