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Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack
NCAAF: Saturday, November 10, 2018, Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada, 10:30 PM ET
The Colorado State Rams were on a two-game winning run before suffering two straight defeats to Boise State and Wyoming to drop to the bottom of the Mountain West Mountain with a 3-6 record. On the other hand, the Nevada Wolf Pack responded to a two-game losing run with a pair of victories over Hawaii and San Diego State to improve to a 5-4 record.
The Rams were kept off the scoreboard in the opening half in a loss to the Cowboys
Colorado State displayed one of the weakest performances in the opening 30 minutes and allowed 21 points to the Wyoming Cowboys in the third quarter in a 34-21 home loss. The Rams were down 24-0 in the third quarter and even though they scored 14 in the final quarter, it wasn’t enough to avoid a defeat. Colorado State’s passing was very good as they recorded 333 yards but all of their three touchdowns actually resulted from a running game despite the fact that they had just 20 yards on the ground on 20 carries. The 16th passing offense in the country is facing a leaky Nevada’s defense that is allowing 264.2 yards to the opposing receivers, so the visitors will have an opportunity to score multiple touchdowns through the air.
Sophomore quarterback Collin Hill is completing 57.8 percent of his passes for 621 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for the Rams. Hill threw for 333 yards in a loss to the Cowboys but he was also picked twice and although he could have another 300+ yard display here, the Rams need him to start finding the receivers in the end zone. K.J. Carta-Samuels who was Colorado State’s top-choice QB before a tilt with Wyoming is still in the mix but the Rams will likely stick with Hill against the Wolf Pack.
The Wolf Pack came from behind to get a win over the Aztecs
Nevada displayed the best second-half performance of the season as they kept the San Diego State Aztecs off the scoreboard to secure a 28-24 comeback victory. The Wolf Pack were 24-15 down at halftime and even though they recorded 297 total yards in opposite to San Diego State’s 456, their defense impressed in the second half. Nevada had 235 passing yards with a pair of touchdowns and the top 40 passing offense is facing the Rams’ defense that allows 237.2 yards to the opposing receivers, so the Wolf Pack will be also looking to hurt the rivals through the passing.
Senior quarterback Ty Gangi is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 2118 yards with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions for the Wolf Pack. Gangi had a fine game as he recorded 235 yards and two touchdowns and a favorable matchup against Colorado State is another opportunity for him to have another 200+ yard showing.
- 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games in total
- 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in November
- 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
- 2-9 ATS in their last 11 conference games
- Rams are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Colorado State won four out of the previous six H2H encounters, while they won three out of the last four; however, I am backing the Wolf Pack against one of the weakest defenses in college football that is allowing 37.3 points per contest. Nevada is scoring 32.1 points in return and they will be looking to exploit the fact that the Rams’ quarterback position is not settled, so I am going with the visitors to record the third straight win.
Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack -14 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is set at 61.5 and the previous H2H tilt produced even 86 points, while over is 4-1 in Rams last five conference games, so I am backing over on this one. Considering that Nevada is scoring 32.1 points per game and Colorado State is allowing 37.3 points per contest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams scoring 30+ here and I am going with over and multiple passing touchdowns on both ends.
Prediction: Over 61.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
Nevada managed to score more than 38 points only twice in nine games this season, while Colorado State allowed 39+ points to the rivals just once in the previous five games, so I am backing the Rams to keep the Wolf Pack to under 38.5 points.
Prediction: Team Points Nevada Wolf Pack Under 38.5 (-125)
Half-Time Side Pick
The Wolf Pack failed to lead at halftime in the previous three home games and even though Colorado State was up after the opening 30 minutes in one of their three road games so far, I am backing them to cover the +7.5 spread here.
Prediction: Colorado State Rams +7.5 (-110)
Half-Time Total Bet
Three of Nevada’s last four games produced more than 31 points at halftime and even though the Rams’ recent games weren’t very efficient in the opening 30 minutes, I don’t think the defenses will have a say on this one, so I am going with over.
Prediction: Over 31.5 (+100)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
Colorado State is struggling to get on the scoreboard in the opening quarter recently as they failed to score in that period in the previous two games. Despite the fact that the Wolf Pack’s defense is not a reliable one, I am backing the hosts to limit the Rams to under 5.5 points in the first 15 minutes.
Prediction: 1st Quarter team Points: Colorado State Rams Under 5.5 (-120)