North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs
NCAAF: Saturday, November 10, 2018, S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, Virginia, 2:00 PM ET
The North Texas Mean Green lost the leading spot in the Conference USA West after losing to UAB but they responded with a massive victory over Rice and they are big favorites to defeat the Monarchs on this one. On the other hand, the Old Dominion Monarchs are not playing well as they lost four of the previous five games and are just one win ahead in the Conference USA East of bottom-placed Western Kentucky.
The Mean Green’s excellent second-half display helped them in a win over the Owls
North Texas struggled to create a big lead in the opening three quarters in a tilt with the Rice Owls at home as the visitors were resilient and had an active 17-20 result, but the Mean Green played much better in the final quarter and scored 21 unanswered points to book a 41-17 victory. North Texas recorded 497 total yards in opposite to Rice’s 299, while their top 10 passing offense damaged the visitors’ secondary with 333 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Old Dominion’s defense against the passing is one of the weakest in the country as they are allowing 278.7 yards to the opposing receivers, so the visitors will have an excellent opportunity to hurt them through the air. The Mean Green are not particularly effective on the ground as they are averaging 146.7 yards per contest but they will try to do damage against the Monarch’s rushing defense that allows 232.8 rushing yards per game.
Junior quarterback Mason Fine is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 2879 yards with 21 touchdowns and just one interception for the Mean Green. Fine had a good performance in a win over the Owls as he recorded 333 yards and two touchdowns and the upcoming matchup with Old Dominion is quite favorable, so the quarterback should have another excellent outing.
The Monarchs suffered the biggest home defeat of the season
Old Dominion snapped the three-game losing streak with a road win over Western Kentucky but they didn’t have such a great time upon their return home as the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders destroyed them, 51-17. The Monarchs always trailed in this tile and even though they collected more total yards (520-488), the hosts committed five turnovers in opposite to just one by the Blue Raiders. Old Dominion was rather effective through the air as they recorded 333 yards and the top 20 passing offense will have a chance against North Texas’ defense that allows 232.1 yards to the opposing receivers.
Junior quarterback Blake LaRussa is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2274 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions for the Monarchs. LaRussa failed to impress in a loss to the Blue Raiders as he threw for 333 yards with a pair of touchdowns and three interceptions, and it’s expected that Old Dominion uses him heavily on this one, so another poor display will probably cost the Monarchs a win.
- 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games
- 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a bye week
- 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games played in November
- 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
North Texas won the only H2H encounter, 45-38, played in October 2017, and they are big favorites to get a victory on this one as well. One of the best passing offenses in college football and the offense that averages 38.1 points per contest will have an excellent opportunity to beat Old Dominion’s defense that allows almost 40 points per game (39.9). Mason Fine is one of the hottest QB’s in the country who threw just one interception so far in the season and I don’t see how the hosts will stop him, so I am backing the visitors to get a comfortable win.
Prediction: North Texas Mean Green -14.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
For those who prefer playing on the points, it is good to know that over is 7-0 in Monarchs last seven games overall, while over is 20-8-1 in Monarchs previous 29 conference games. These rivals are combining around 65 points per contest, and although I am backing the visitors to do better in the defense, over is 8-3 in Mean Green last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, so I am going with over here.
Prediction: Over 66.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
Old Dominion suffered a couple of big home defeats in the last two games which is not an encouraging sign for the hosts here and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mean Green destroys them, so I am backing the visitors to beat them with a margin between 19 and 24 at quite attractive +500 odds.
Prediction: Winning Margin: North Texas Mean Green 19-24 (+500)
Half-Time Side Pick
The Mean Green didn’t trail at halftime in their previous four games, while Old Dominion was down after the opening 30 minutes in each of their last five games, so I am backing the visitors to take control of this tilt as early as possible and cover the -8 spread in the first half.
Prediction: North Texas Mean Green -8 (-110)
Half-Time Total Bet
Only one of North Texas’s last five games produced more than 34 points at halftime and even though three of Old Dominion’s previous five did produce 35+ points in the first 30 minutes, I am going with under despite the fact that I backed over in the end.
Prediction: Under 34 (-105)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
The Mean Green shouldn’t have problems to beat the Monarchs in both halves here and although the -210 odds are not attractive to the bettors, backing North Texas on double result is a sure bet, so I am going with the visitors to show their domination.
Prediction: Double Result: North Texas Mean Green – North Texas Mean Green (-210)