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Ole Miss brings their high-powered offense and suspect defense into College Station on Saturday to take on Texas A&M. Both teams have lost two straight with the Rebels coming off of a four-point loss to South Carolina and the Aggies had also fallen by four points, at Auburn. TAMU has won 7 of the 10 all-time meetings between the two sides, including last season’s 31-24 victory in Oxford, but that snapped a Mississippi three-game winning streak in the series.
Aggies Eager to get back to Winning
Texas A&M has been up and down throughout the season, splitting their first four games, but both of those losses came against the two teams currently ranked first and second in the college football playoff poll (Alabama and Clemson. After that they seemed to find their groove and won three straight conference games but have since dropped back-to-back games at Mississippi State and Auburn, allowing four touchdowns in each loss.
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) November 3, 2018
Kellen Mond threw for 220 yards and a score in the loss to the Tigers as A&M blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead in the defeat. The final blow came on an Auburn 11-yard strike with 1:41 remaining in the game, and the Aggies were unable to answer. They lost the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was clearly the difference in the ball as they outgained the Tigers 423-278 in total yardage. To beat the Rebels they will have to protect the ball. While it is the Rebels who are known for their high powered offense, Texas A&M is not exactly a slouch in that department as they are putting up 458 yards per game and will be going up against a Rebels D that is giving up 500 yards per contest. This will be an opportunity for the Aggies to put up some serious points at home if they can start finding the end zone more often.
Rebels With a Cause
Ole Miss can score some damn points, that is to be sure. the team was held to 7 points against Alabama but had produced fireworks nearly every other time out. That ‘Bama loss was their only one through four games and the team was looking like a contender for a New Year’s Day Bowl (But there is this of course), but since then they have won just twice in their last five outings. Those two wins came against Louisiana Monroe and an Arkansas team that is still winless in league play. That victory is actually the only one in the SEC that Missippi can claim as they have lost their other four attempts and sit just one game out of last in the SEC West. Still, with just one more win they can still finish with a .500 record, but it will have to come either this week or on the road against Vandy or the Egg Bowl against their biggest rival.
.@JTaamu10 is now over 3,000 passing yards on the season. He is the 4th Ole Miss QB do accomplish this and it is the 6th time in Ole Miss history a QB has eclipsed this mark. pic.twitter.com/xrNaqbFjuN
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 3, 2018
Just like the Aggies, Ole Miss also blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead en route to a four-point defeat. The team scored on an Isaiah Woullard 1-yard touchdown run 45 seconds into the fourth quarter to take a 44-34 lead and had their home crowd behind them to ensure a victory but it was not to be as Jake Bentley ran it in with 5:50 to go and the Rebels could never respond. They had 34 first downs in the game to USC’s 18 and put up over 600 yards (616) of offense, but of course, allowed South Carolina to put up over 500 (510) and turned the ball over once. It was the kind of loss that can get in your head and not what the team needed as they try to prepare to go to College Station. This game will come down to the Mississippi offense against the Texas A&M defense. The Rebs are putting up 546.6 yards per contest while the Aggies are allowing just 322 yards a game. With TAMU being at home, a victory for the visiting offense in that battle does not appear likely.
Texas A&M is:
- 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ole Miss is:
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Every time the Rebels face a solid D their offense suddenly looks less than spectacular. They only managed seven points against the Crimson Tide and 16 in games with both Auburn and LSU. The Texas A&M defense is right up there with the rest of them and the fact that this one is a home game for the Aggies certainly favors them in the their defense’s match up with the Rebel offense. Look for an easy A&M cover in this one.
Prediction: Pick: Texas A&M -11.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The Over is kind of a no-brainier in this one, but not for the reason you’d think. Yes, the Ole Miss offense can put up points in bunches, but their defense can also allow them. This Aggies’ offense is looking for a breakout performance and it will get one here at home against a legitimately bad D. Ole Miss should still get theirs, makd this over/under questionable. The Over has hit in 6 of the last seven Rebel aways games and is 10-2-1 in games they have played following a loss. For the win, go with the Over.