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Oregon State Beavers at Stanford Cardinal
NCAAF: Saturday November 10, 2018 at 9:00 PM EST
Well, it has been another disappointing season for Oregon State, who only have two wins and only one Pac 12 win. They did beat Colorado in their game before their last one, but they are big-time road underdogs in this game. Not surprising since they rank dead last in the nation on scoring defense giving up an average of 44.8 ppg.
Stanford has really hit the skids in the 2nd half of the season, as they have lost two in a row and four of their last five games. They are 3-3 in conference play and while they will not make the Pac 12 title game they can improve their bowl positioning with every win. RB Bryce Love came in 2nd in the Heisman voting last season, but has dealt with injuries this season and only has one game where he has rushed for over 100 yards. Hard to believe with Love the Cardinal rank 126th in the nation in rushing yards per game.
Stanford has covered the spread in four of their last five home games facing Oregon State.
Beavers can’t stop the run
Oregon State was at home in their last game losing to USC 38-21 where they were torched on the ground. They gave up 509 total yards and gave up 332 rushing yards while they only rushed for 31 yards. The Beavers were 9/19 on 3rd down and had 301 passing yards, but the run game killed them. Jake Luton passed for 301 yards with one TD and no picks and Isaiah Hodgins had 129 receiving yards. Jermar Jefferson rushed for 58 yards only averaging 3.2 yards per carry and Luton lost 45 yards on sacks and the run.
Luton missed four games in the middle of the season, but he has started the last two games and passed for over 300 yards in each of them. Stanford’s weakness on defense is against the pass where they only rank 110th in the nation in that category.
Can’t overcome first half hole
In their last game Stanford was on the road and lost to Washington where they could not overcome the first half hole where they were outscored 21-0.
— Stanford Football (@StanfordFball) November 5, 2018
They had more overall yards in the game (424-371), but they did not run the ball well and it did not help their cause turning the ball over three times while not forcing a turnover. K.J. Costello passed for 347 yards with two TD, but he accounted for all of the turnovers with three INT. Love rushed for 71 yards and a TD, but failed to average over four yards per carry.
Costello has put up big numbers in his last two games, but he has to avoid the turnover. It would help if he could get some love from Love in the backfield. Maybe Love can get on track in this game facing an OSU run D that only ranks 125th in the nation.
The Stanford Cardinal are:
- 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss
- 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games
The Oregon State Beavers are:
- 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Stanford has stumbled in the last few games, but they have covered in five of their last 12 Pac 12 games. On the other side of the coin Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 conference games. Love and Costello will have big games in this one facing a bad Oregon State defense and this game will get ugly quickly. At home Stanford will crush Oregon State easily winning and covering the spread.
Prediction: PIUCK: Stanford
Full-Game Total Pick
Oregon’s defense has been terrible on the season and in their last 11 games on the road the total has gone Over 10 times. Look for that trend to continue, a the Cardinal will light up the scoreboard at home. With Stanford having defensive issues against the pass the Beavers will get their points, but not nearly as many as the Cardinal. take the Over in this Pac 12 game.
Prediction: PICK: Over