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AAC action here as the Tulsa Golden Hurricane travel to take on the Memphis Tigers. Both teams have had relatively disappointing 2018’s, as Tulsa enters the game 2-7 while Memphis sits at 5-4. Both teams have had rough patches recently, but are starting to show signs of getting things together. This should be an interesting one as both teams look to close strong.
Tulsa sits at 2-7, but there’s reason to think they might be better than their record indicates. They played a pretty tough non-conference slate with games against the Big 12 and SEC, and have played a ton of close games. They recently snapped a seven-game losing streak, but four of those losses were by single digits.
They’ve actually been able to cover a bunch of games while losing narrowly. They only lost to Texas by seven and came up one point short of beating South Florida. They finally got things back on track last week when they beat Connecticut by 30 points. The offense hasn’t been the problem, it’s mostly been the defense that hasn’t been able to get stops.
A final second field goal capped off fourth quarter comeback for @USFFootball, who outscored Tulsa 15-0 in the final 15 minutes, thanks in part to QB Blake Barnett's 237 yards passing and pair of rushing touchdowns. #AmericanFB pic.twitter.com/Zv3dx15s69
— American Football (@American_FB) October 13, 2018
Tulsa runs a pretty conservative offense, and has more rushing yards than passing yards this year. Memphis is 82nd in the country in rushing defense, so they could have some success here. Now that they’re back in the win column, it’ll be interesting to see whether they can carry any of that momentum over. They’ve played better than their record indicates all year, and this number seems a bit high.
Memphis Only Plays Shootouts
Almost every single Memphis football game goes the same way, and it seemingly has for years now. It’s a shootout, and one team ends up scoring at least 50 points. Excluding the Navy game because of their triple option style offense, the winner of every game Memphis has played in this season has at least 31 points.
In seven of the Tigers’ nine games this year, at least one team has scored 40 points. The Tigers had a great 2017 where they went 10-2 in the regular season, but have dropped off significantly this year. They had to replace prolific quarterback Riley Ferguson, and the transition hasn’t always been easy. New quarterback Brady White has played pretty well, but the team just hasn’t looked the same.
The Tigers have struggled to win tough games, as their four losses have come against their four toughest opponents. They weren’t able to knock off any of the bigger programs they faced, and have instead feasted on the bottom-feeders. Tulsa isn’t a bottom-feeder and could present some problems for Memphis here. Memphis could be looking ahead to their primetime nationally televised game with SMU next week, and will have to be careful to avoid getting caught sleeping.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
Golden Hurricane are:
- 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win
- 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
- 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I like the Golden Hurricane a lot here. They’re much better than their record indicates, and should be able to keep this one close. They’ve been pretty good against the number recently, covering 17 of their past 24 road games. I think their ground attack will give Memphis trouble, and they could even be a threat to win outright.
Prediction: Tulsa +15.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Just about every Memphis game has extremely high point totals, and I think this is a good spot to fade the consensus here. Tulsa likes to run the ball and slow games down, and this game could be much slower paced than a typical Tigers game. Tulsa will try to play keep away, and if they succeed this could come in way under.