UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars
NCAAF: Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 5:00 PM EST
UL Monroe has won three in a row after losing four straight games and they are atop the Sun Belt West Division. However, they only have a one-game lead on Louisiana, who they host in their season finale. While the Warhawks have a balanced offense on the season they have not been a dynamic one, but they have scored at least 44 points in two of their last three games. Their defense has also played much better in their three-game win streak, but on the season, they only rank 106th in points allowed.
South Alabama has lost two in a row and five of their last six games and they are tied with Texas State in last place in the West Division at 1-4. In their last two games, they have been outscored 76-31. The Jaguars have had struggled on both sides of the ball this season, especially on defense ranking 122nd giving up an average of 39 ppg.
Last season at home South Alabama beat UL Monroe 33-23.
Great overall game
UL Monroe was at home in their last game and they upset Georgia Southern where they had a great overall game. While they did have two turnovers they racked up 573 yards, only gave up 218 yards, and they were up 27-10 at the half. Caleb Evans passed for 337 yards with two TD and two INT and Marcus Green was his main target with 149 receiving yards and he hauled in both of the passing TD’s. Derrick Gore and Evans each rushed for over 100 yards and each averaged at least six yards per carry.
Gore has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games and he and Evans have combined for 1,065 rushing yards and 13 TD. The Warhawks may want to hit the ground more in this game facing a South Alabama run D that only ranks 113th in the nation.
Defense shredded again
South Alabama’s defense was shredded again in their last game where they were on the road and lost to Arkansas State 38-14. They gave up 509 total yards, only had 249 yards, and they were outscored 24-7 in the 2nd half. Two quarterbacks for the Jaguars saw action in the game, but they only combined to pass for 93 yards. Tra Minter led the team with 88 rushing yards averaging 5.2 yards per carry and he busted out a 36-yard run. Evan Orth has been the starting QB for the season, but he is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury. If he cannot go Cephus Johnson will get the start and his first action of the season was in the Arkansas State game.
— South Alabama Jaguar Athletics (@WeAreSouth_JAGS) November 6, 2018
Minter leads the team with 450 rushing yards and he has totaled 187 rushing yards in his last two games. The Warhawks have had issues on D against the run and the pass, but they have played solid defense in winning their last two games.
The South Alabama Jaguars are:
- 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
- 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 conference games
The UL Monroe Warhawks are:
- 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November
- 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game
- 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
While ULM has failed to cover in their last five games facing a team with a losing record South Alabama has failed to cover in four of their last five games facing a team with a winning record. That last trend is the one that will continue. ULM will rack up the yards against a weak Jaguars’ defense and their defense will play well for the 3rd straight game. Take the Warhawks in this Sun Belt game to win and cover.
Prediction: PICK: UL Monroe
Full-Game Total Pick
Even if South Alabama does not put up many points the Over is still the smart bet in this game. The Jaguars have been bad on the defensive side of the football and they will give up a ton of points in this game. ULM will rack up the points and the yards so take the Over.
Prediction: PICK: Over