Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos
NCAAF: Friday, November 16, 2018, Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 9:00 PM ET
The Boise State Broncos are in a great form of five consecutive wins and they are entering this Mountain West Conference matchup as strong favorites to get the ninth victory of the campaign and stay close to Utah State who is currently the conference leaders. On the other hand, the New Mexico Lobos are in a poor run of five straight defeats and are at the bottom of the MW with a 3-7 record and it seems they will drop to 3-8 after this clash.
The Broncos displayed an excellent performance in the final quarter to beat the Bulldogs
Boise State won four consecutive games to improve to a 7-2 record and even though they were 17-10 down after the opening three quarters in a duel with the Fresno State Bulldogs, they managed to come back and secure a 24-17 victory. The Broncos were excellent defensively in the final quarter as they didn’t allow the visitors to score, while they posted 269 passing yards and the top 20 passing offense will get another opportunity to hurt the Lobos’ defense that is allowing 280.9 yards to the opposing receivers. Also, the Broncos will have a chance to do damage on the ground as New Mexico allows 201.2 yards per contest to the opposing runners.
Senior quarterback Brett Rypien is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 3048 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions for the Broncos. Rypien had a solid display in a win over the Bulldogs as he recorded 269 yards with a touchdown and an interception and the upcoming matchup with New Mexico will be his chance to add 300+ yards and lead his team to the victory.
The Lobos are desperate to avoid the sixth straight defeat
New Mexico continued with a poor performance in the latest defeat to the Air Force Falcons despite scoring 24 points, which is the highest amount of points in the last five games. The Lobos played well in the opening half and had an active 17-21 result but Air Force improved in the second 30 minutes and kept the New Mexico off the scoreboard in the final quarter to book a 42-24 win. New Mexico is averaging 199.0 passing yards per contest and exploiting the air will likely be their chance on this one as the Broncos are allowing 239.3 yards to the opposing receivers. However, the hosts will probably have troubles to get their running game going against the top 30 defense that allows only 125.9 rushing yards per game.
Junior quarterback Sheriron Jones is completing 54.4 percent of his passes for 1316 yards with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for the Lobos. Jones was completely stopped in a loss to the Falcons as he threw for just 114 yards with an interception before being subbed off in favor of ColtinGerhart who also failed to find the end zone. Jones will keep his starting job for the time being but if he struggles again, Gerhart will get his chance to shine.
- 2-8 ATS in their last ten conference games
- 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in November
- 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on Friday
- 5-0-1 ATS vs. an opponent with a losing record
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games played on the road vs. an opponent with a losing home record
- 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on the road
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Boise State won six out of the previous seven H2H encounters including the last two, while the Broncos were victorious in the past three meetings at the Dreamstyle Stadium. Even though the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven duels and underdog is 6-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings, I am going with the visitors on this one. The Lobos are on a three-game losing run at home, while Boise State won the previous three games on the road and they are fighting with Utah State for the top spot in the Mountain West and the top 30 offense that is averaging 36.6 points per contest shouldn’t have problems against the defense that allows 35.8 points per game.
Prediction: Boise State Broncos -20 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
New Mexico’s offense is not bad at all as they are scoring 30.8 points per game and considering Boise State’s high-flying offense, I am expecting at least 60 points here, so I am backing over. Over is 8-2 in Lobos last ten games overall; over is 4-1 in Lobos previous five home games, while over is 4-0 in Broncos last four vs. a team with a losing record. The Lobos conceded 30+ points in each of their four games at home this year, while the Broncos scored 30+ in the last three road games, so this one should be another high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Over 62.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
Boise State scored more than 41 points in four games this season, while New Mexico allowed 42+ points to their opponents on four occasions this year and considering the teams’ respective forms at the moment, I am backing the visitors to slice the Lobos’ defense and score at least 42 points here.
Prediction: Team Points: Boise State Broncos Over 41.5 (-138)
Half-Time Side Pick
The Broncos didn’t impress in the first halves of the previous five games as they were up at halftime just twice in that span, winning all five games in the end. However, the Lobos are in a disastrous form and I don’t think they will be able to cope with Boise State’s offense early in the game and the -11.5 spread should be a piece of cake for the visitors so I am backing them to cover it.
Prediction: Boise State Broncos -11.5 (-110)
Half-Time Total Bet
I am expecting at least 20-25 points from the visitors in the opening 30 minutes and even though none of their last two games produce more than 32 points at halftime, I am backing over on this one. Boise State’s games are much more efficient on the road than at home, which is the biggest reason why I am backing over 32.5 points in the first half.
Prediction: Over 32.5 (-110)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
The Broncos scored more than eight points in the opening quarter in three out of their last four games, while New Mexico conceded 9+ points in the first 15 minutes in two of their previous three games, so I am backing Boise State to score at least one touchdown with a field goal to make us profit.
Prediction: 1st Quarter Team Points: Boise State Broncos Over 8.5 (-120)