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Air Force vs. Colorado State Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-16-2019

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#351 Air Force
Falcons -10
#352 Colorado State
Rams 10

Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Air Force

7 - 2

5-4
ATS
5-4
O/U
34
PPG
20
OPPG

Colorado State

4 - 5

6-3
ATS
4-5
O/U
31
PPG
31
OPPG

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

A Mountain West Mountain Division showdown is on tap Saturday evening as the Colorado State Rams host the Air Force Falcons.

Following a rocky start, Colorado State has won three consecutive vs. sub .500 competition to join this winter’s bowl chase. Mike Bobo’s offense has rallied since Oct. 11, averaging 37.6 ppg. Following Colin Hill’s season-ending injury, Nebraska transfer Patrick O’Brien has gradually secured his role as the Rams’ starter. During O’Brien’s previous three outings the 6-5, 250 lb pocket presence has thrown five touchdowns against one interception and 976 yards to highlight CSU’s unbeaten run.

Meanwhile, Air Force has erased bitter recent 5-7 campaigns by grabbing a 7-2 start. The Falcons’ two-way efficiency has sparked winning nights as AF recently downed Army 17-13 to cap a 5-1 stretch. Unfortunately, last week the Falcons’ scheduled game vs. New Mexico was postponed after the death of NMSU linebacker Nahje Flowers. Flowers’ cause of death wasn’t made public. Air Force and New Mexico will play a makeup game scheduled for Nov. 23.

The Falcons enter this weekend’s road contest as 10.5 point road favorites. Air Force ran away from CSU 27-19 during the teams’ 2018 finale.

The Falcons’ 4-1 conference record ranks second. Colorado State’s 3-2 mark ranks fifth.

Air Force battling for conference title

As Air Force’s battle with Boise State atop the MW-Mountain division reaches a climax, today’s contest is vital for the Falcons’ odds to secure an MWC title. A win today also keeps alive Air Force’s double-digit victory bid this season.

Led by an experienced offense (34.4 ppg, #29 FBS) and defense (20.9 pa, #29 FBS) the Falcons have rolled through their last four opponents, only stammering a bit during an early-Nov. 17-13 defensive chess match vs. Army. Led by Tim Jackson and Josh Stoner’s ground scores, AF’s prolific rush onslaught added 328 yards while serving as the team’s primary mover. At critical junctures, the Falcons’ defense held serve as Army finished with 343 yards total offense and one end zone strike.

There’s little doubt Air Force’s downhill push can wear against a CSU run defense allowing 204 ypg. Though, with touchdown leader Kadin Remsberg’s status questionable this weekend, Darrell Hammond cannot afford any turnovers vs. surging Colorado State.

CSU looking to keep momentum going from home

When their season appeared lost following Hill’s knee injury, behind smart coaching, Colorado State gradually pieced together winning infrastructure. The cornerstone to that design, as noted, became Pat O’Brien. While not flashy like Hill, when times appeared dark, O’Brien met his offense with increasingly familiar scoring drives. Now, O’Brien and Colorado, coming off a bye week, are primed to claw back to .500 vs. division surprise Air Force.

The Rams’ most recent win came 37-17 Nov. 2 opposite host UNLV. Colorado State’s three rushing scores -one each from backs Christian Hunter, Marcus McElroy and Jaylen Thomas- offset Rebels quarterback Kenyon Oblad’s two-touchdown, 280-yard day. CSU’s edge rush added five sacks, as Anthony Hawkins’ 99-yard punt return and the Rams’ kicking corps added three field goals to decide matters.

Brimming momentum, and home field, rested CSU gains their signature-upset chance on Saturday. The Rams’ 31.7 ppg ranks #52 FBS and their 32.0 ppg #96.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Riding momentum, Colorado State from home will test Air Force’s resolve. In a conference rivalry between streaking teams, AF’s run game and defense are paramount to not only picking up an eighth 2019 win, but in their bid to beat Saturday’s spread -a spread which is set just a bit high given CSU’s rest, health and rolling offense.

I’ll side with home-field and momentum while taking Patrick O’Brien’s arm and the Rams’ running game to beat the spread Saturday. Air Force has an underrated fight on their hands this weekend, especially if Remsburg sits. Colorado State stands 6-3 ATS this year.

Prediction: Colorado State

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I’ll take the slight over lean in this contest as each team adds offensive firepower. While AF’s defense is on another level than Colorado State’s, home field will help the Rams to push through on third-down situations and in the end-zone.

I like how the Rams have gelled on both sides of the football this past month. Look for a quality O’Brien outing, along with CSU ground gains. Air Force’s run game will, as usual, add points. And, this weekend, so will Colorado State’s offense.

Prediction: Over

Joshua Broom

A lifelong sports enthusiast, Joshua Broom has lent his thirty-plus years of insight to several sports outlets and has appeared on national radio to talk hoops. Now a dedicated handicapper, Joshua avidly critiques NBA, MLB and college and professional basketball and football trends for the betting public. Check out his picks today at Stat Salt to get a leg up on your bookie.

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