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SEC action here as the Ole Miss Rebels host the LSU Tigers. Ole Miss enters this one at 4-6 and just 2-4 in conference play, while LSU is still undefeated at 9-0. Oddsmakers opened LSU, the number two team in the country, as a three-touchdown favorite for this one. It'll be televised nationally on ESPN.
LSU has been the true breakout team of the 2019 college football season, and they are coming off one of the biggest wins in recent program history. LSU was able to beat Alabama on the road this past week, putting them in the driver's seat for a college football playoff spot. The offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow has been electric, and coach Ed Orgeron is having the time of his life.
Ole Miss entered a new era of football this year, and so far they've been up and down. They've had some good efforts and have also laid some ducks, and it will be interesting to see which team shows up here. Most recently, they crushed New Mexico State in a late-season non-conference game. Before that, they had lost three straight.
LSU On TopIt would be hard to overstate just how great of a season LSU has been having. The Tigers enter this one at 9-0 and are the clear top team in the country at the moment. This past week they picked up one of the biggest wins in recent program history, when they went on the road and topped the Alabama Crimson Tide. They control their own destiny to make it as the top seed in the college football playoff, and their schedule the final three weeks of the regular season is pretty easy. All that being said, they will need to make sure not to overlook Ole Miss here in their last road game of the season. LSU has a lot of talent on defense, but their unreal start to this season has been mostly due to the offense.
Joe Burrow has been playing at an unreal level, and he's elevated himself from being a late-round consideration to the potential number one overall pick in next year's draft. He has 33 touchdowns and only four interceptions, and is averaging an absurd 10.7 yards per pass attempt. However, That doesn't mean this LSU team is without their flaws. Their ground game hasn't been nearly as good as expected, averaging a middling 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Against a solid Ole Miss run defense that is only giving up 3.59 yards per carry, it could continue to struggle. Ole Miss also has a respectable secondary that is only giving up 7.25 yards per pass attempt, so Burrow isn't going to have his easiest game of the season. LSU has also shown signs of overlooking weaker opponents recently, as they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against teams with losing records.
Ole Miss Goes Run-HeavyOle Miss is having another somewhat disappointing season, and they have been unable to break out from their cycle of mediocrity. They lost in their opener to Memphis, and enter this one at just 4-6. That being said, they've been highly competitive even in their losses. Only one of their losses was somewhat lopsided, and it was a road game against Alabama. Even in that game, the offense managed to put up 31 points, and they haven't been embarrassed yet this season. As I mentioned above Ole Miss is a pretty talented defensive front that is only giving of 3.59 yards per carry this season, and there are reasons to believe they could have some success here. It looks like LSU is going to be without both of their starting tackles, Austin Deculus and Saahdiq Charles, as they deal with injuries.
Those are two huge losses, and Ole Miss will need to take advantage. Interestingly, the Rebels have been going very run-heavy recently. It's a massive departure from their previous teams that often had prolific passing games, and in their most recent contest they rushed the ball 61 times while only passing it 19. As such, it's all going to come down to how they can establish the run here. LSU has a very tough defensive front and run defense, and this game is going to be decided in the trenches. Even though Mississippi hasn't had great results in terms of wins and losses they've been able to cover numbers with their new style of play, going 5-1 in their last six games against the spread.
Trends, courtesy of Covers.com Tigers are:
- 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Getting three touchdowns at home with Ole Miss here is a great value. The Rebels have been close in virtually every game they've played this season even though they have six losses, and they managed to put up 31 points on Alabama. If they can score that much on the Crimson Tide, then they should be able to score enough here to keep this one within the number. LSU has overlooked some opponents in the past, and coming off their huge win over Alabama I think they could be in for a letdown. I don't see this one being a blowout.
Prediction: Ole Miss +21
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the under a lot in this spot. Ole Miss continues to get more run-heavy with each week that passes, and that style of play drains a ton of clock. Ole Miss also has a very solid defensive front that is pretty underrated, and now LSU is going to be missing both their starting offensive tackles. That's going to make life much more difficult for Joe Burrow, and LSU's offense could have a bit of a hangover after their performance against Alabama. LSU has a very talented defense as well, so I don't think Ole Miss' strategy of pounding the ball is going to work too well here.