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Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats, Preview, and Odds
NCAAF: Saturday, November 16, 2019, Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, Texas, 3:00 pm EDT
The Troy Trojans snapped a two-game losing streak and responded to a narrow defeat to Coastal Carolina with a big home victory over the favored Georgia Southern Eagles. They improved to a 4-5 record and are in the 6th place in Sun Belt.
The Texas State Bobcats also ended the negative streak of three straight losses and beat the South Alabama Jaguars at home, in a quite exciting tilt. The Bobcats improved to a 3-6 record and are in the 9th position in Sun Belt.
These rivals met four times in the last six years, and Troy won all four encounters, including the most recent one in November 2018.
The Trojans limited Georgia Southern to 333 yards in a winThe Troy Trojans were slight underdogs at home against the Georgia Southern Eagles but managed to get a big victory thanks to a strong defense. They kept the visitors off the scoreboard in the first and third quarters and limited them to 333 yards while totaled 603 to record a 49-28 win. Kaleb Barker completed 27 of 41 passes for 330 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Kaylon Geiger led all the receivers with 110 yards on seven catches. Troy was surprisingly good on the ground as they recorded even 273 yards and three scores. DK Billingsley had the best game of his career with 163 yards and a couple of TDs on 14 carries.
Although the passing offense is a better part of Chip Lindsey’s system, the Trojans impressed with the rushing performance. They will have another opportunity to hurt the opponents on the ground. Texas State has one of the weakest defenses against the run that allows 221.7 yards per game, while Troy is averaging 158.1 yards. The Trojans have a top 10 passing offense in the country that averages 320.3 yards, but the Bobcats are much better in defending the air than the ground. They are allowing 186.4 yards to the opposing receivers, and in case the passing game doesn’t work, the visitors will turn to DK Billingsley.
The Bobcats edged South Alabama in an exciting gameThe Texas State Bobcats secured a narrow 30-28 home win over the South Alabama Jaguars thanks to Joshua Rowland’s field goal with six minutes to go. This encounter saw the lead changes eight times, and it could go either way, but the hosts managed to win in the end. Tyler Vitt completed 23 of 33 passes for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Trevis Graham Jr. scored two receiving TDs, Javen Banks added one, while Hutch White recorded 165 yards on ten receptions. As usual, the Bobcats’ running offense wasn’t a factor as they collected only 42 yards on 34 carries.
.@TXStateFootball's @JakeSpavital talks about tonight's win and the toughness of QB Tyler Vitt.— Texas State Bobcats (@TxStateBobcats) November 9, 2019
T. Vitt- 23/33, 373 pass yds, 3 TD's
H. White- 10 rec. 165 yards
T. Graham Jr.- 2 TD receptions pic.twitter.com/sq9uMcEB2J
Given that Troy is letting 143.7 yards per contest to the opposing rushers, it’s hard to expect Texas State to have more than 100 yards on Saturday. However, the Bobcats can exploit the air and the Trojans’ weak secondary that allows 264.6 yards. Texas State fans can hope for another 250+ yard display from Vitt.
The top supporting trends for this game are found on Covers.com Troy:
- 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win
- 8-2 ATS in their last ten games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games
- 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall
- 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss
- 0-5-1 ATS in their last six conference games
- 1-4 ATS in their last five games in November
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Troy lost the last three games on the road, but the previous narrow defeat to Coastal Carolina will surely motivate them to show a better performance against Texas State. The Trojans have an excellent passing offense that could struggle against a sturdy Bobcats’ secondary. Even though they prefer passing, the visitors have the ability to exploit the ground, especially after last week’s fantastic display against Georgia Southern. Overall, the Trojans have a more efficient offense than the Bobcats that is averaging 36.6 points per game. They have more numerous offensive weapons unlike the hosts, and I am backing Troy to secure the fifth straight victory over Texas State.
Prediction: Troy Trojans -8.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The previous H2H duel produced just 19 points, and although I don’t think we will have such a low-scoring affair here, I am still going with Under. The total is set at 61.5, and the biggest reason I am backing Under is that the Bobcat’s offense is averaging 17.8 points per contest. They did score 30 points in a win over South Alabama, but failed to score more than 14 in three games before that victory. I expect to see a lot of running plays from the visitors, who are good enough to control the tempo and the game. The Bobcats didn’t score more than nine points in the last three H2H encounters.
Prediction: Under 61.5 (-110)