Check out our best plays in this week’s Fab Five:
New Mexico State Aggies vs. BYU Cougars
NCAAF: Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 10:15 PM EST
New Mexico State will not be going bowling this season with only three wins, but they did snap their three-game losing streak in their last game. They put up 52 points in their win in their last game facing Alcorn State, but while the offense has not been terrible for the Aggies the defense has ranking 127th out of 129 FBS teams in points allowed per game.
BYU had lost two in a row before a win in their last game and they need only one more win to become bowl eligible. They had only totaled 22 points in losing two in a row before putting up 35 points in winning their last game. The Cougars do not have a dynamic offense, to say the least, but they have a legit defense that ranks 30th in the nation in points allowed.
Blowing up in the first half
New Mexico State was at home in their last game beating Alcorn State 52-42 where they outscored them 35-14 in the first half. The Aggies got the win racking up 529 total yards, but they gave up a whopping 654 yards. Josh Adkins passed for 396 yards with four TD and no INT and Jason Huntley led three players that had at least 84 receiving yards with 111 of them and a TD. Christian Gibson rushed for 89 yards averaging 6.8 yards per carry and Huntley rushed for 43 yards with two TD.
Adkins had three picks and no TD in his previous two games before the win over Alcorn State and he will be facing a BYU pass defense that ranks 33rd in the nation.
Big game on the ground
In their last game BYU was on the road and they beat UMASS 35-16 where they had a big game running the ball.
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) November 11, 2018
They outgained UMASS 388 yards to 285 yards and while they had the game’s only turnover they rushed for 221 yards. Zach Wilson passed for 167 yards with two TD and no INT and Matt Hadley and Wilson combined for 122 rushing yards. The top two rushers for the Cougars in Squally Canada and Lopini Katoa have not been getting a lot of work in the last couple of games and Wilson has not put up big numbers since becoming a starter. The Cougars win with defense, but their offense may light it up facing a New Mexico State D that ranks 121st in the nation defending the pass and 126th defending the run.
The BYU Cougars are:
- 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November
- 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
The New Mexico State Aggies are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Cougars are giving away a lot of points in this one, which is no surprise considering the defense that New Mexico State has. BYU will light it up in this one at home and it will get ugly quick for the Aggies. BYU will win and and cover at home and in the win they will be bowl eligible.
Prediction: PICK: BYU
Full-Game Total Pick
While BYU is not a very high scoring team they may be in this game facing a New Mexico State defense that is one of the worst in the nation. In nine of the last 13 home games for the Cougars the total has gone Under, but don’t look for that trend to continue. The Cougars will score big time in this game and the Over is the pick.
Prediction: PICK: Over