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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
NCAAF: Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 10:30 PM EST
San Diego State has seven wins, but they have lost two of their last three games and lost to UNLV in their last game, who has just three wins on the season. The Aztecs still have a chance to win the MWC West Division, but they need to win this game and have Nevada, who they are tied with in 2nd place in the division and who they lost to this season, to lose. San Diego State is led by a defense that ranks 23rd in the nation in points allowed.
Fresno State was ranked for a few weeks before having their seven-game win streak snapped in their last game. They are atop the West Division and if they win this game they will play in the MWC title game.
— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) November 13, 2018
The Bulldogs had put up 98 points in two straight games before only scoring 17 in their last game, which was a loss to Boise State. The Aztecs are balanced and their strength is their defense, which ranks tied for 5th in the nation only giving up an average of 13.5 ppg.
San Diego State was at home in their last game losing 27-24 to UNLV, who not only have three wins, but snapped their six-game losing streak. The Aztecs gave up 436 total yards in the game and gave up 199 rushing yards and they totaled 368 yards, but only had 89 yards on the ground. SDSU was outscored 14-0 in the 4th quarter. The Aztecs had two QB’s split time in Ryan Agnew and Christian Chapman and each had one TD and one INT. Juwan Washington led the Aztecs on the ground to the tune of 66 rushing yards, but he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry.
Agnew has been the starter for much of the season, but he may share time under center again in this game. Fresno State has a balanced D that ranks in the top 30 in the nation in pass defense and run defense.
Giving it up late
In their last game, Fresno State lost to Boise State 24-17 where they were outscored 14-0 in the 4th quarter. They had 390 yards in the game and gave up 448 yards and while they forced the game’s only turnover they also gave up 179 rushing yards. Marcus McMaryion passed for 283 yards with a TD and no INT and KeeSean Johnson was his main target with 95 receiving yards and a score. Jordan Mims led the Bulldogs with only 47 rushing yards.
McMaryion has passed for 2,699 yards with 21 TD and only three INT on the season and 14 TD and only one pick in his last six games. He may have to try to carry the load on offense, as SDSU ranks 5th in the nation in run defense and 42nd in pass defense. Fresno State has covered the spread in six of their last seven games facing San Diego State.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are:
- 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall
- 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss
- 14-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games
The San Diego State Aztecs are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss
- 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Fresno State is coming off a tough loss, but they lost to a solid team in Boise State. The same thing cannot be said about San Diego State, as they lost at home in their last game facing a three-win UNLV squad. The Aztecs have failed to cover the spread in their last five road games and look for that trend to continue. Fresno State will win and cover at home keeping their faint hopes alive for a spot in the MWC title game.
Prediction: PICK: Fresno State
Full-Game Total Pick
Why go against the grain? The total has gone Under in the last five games between these teams and it will go Under again in this one. Neither team will rack up a ton of yards since each has a good defense. This game will be won with D and that is why the Under is the smart pick.
Prediction: PICK: Under