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Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams
NCAAF: Saturday, November 17, 2018, Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado, 2:00 PM ET
The Utah State Aggies are one of the hottest teams in the college football at the moment as they recorded nine consecutive wins following a loss in the season opener and they are at the top of the Mountain West conference with a 9-1 record, a win ahead of the Boise State Broncos. On the other hand, the Colorado State Rams are not playing well recently as they suffered three straight defeats and are at the bottom of the MW with a 3-7 record.
The Aggies destroyed the Spartans to get the 9th straight win
Utah State returned home from a big road win over Hawaii and continued with excellent form in a 62-24 victory over the San Jose State Spartans, scoring even 49 points in the second and third quarter. The Aggies totaled an astonishing 804 yards in opposite to the Spartans’ 400 and dismantled the rivals with their passing game as they recorded even 510 yards with five touchdowns. The top 20 passing offense that is averaging 293.4 yards per contest is facing the Rams’ defense that allows 253.9 yards to the opposing receivers, so the visitors will have another great opportunity to make the rivals’ secondary pay. Also, Utah State has a strong running game that is averaging 224.1 rushing yards per game, while Colorado State allows 210.0 yards on the ground.
Sophomore quarterback Jordan Love is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 2676 yards with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions for the Aggies. Love was magnificent in a win over the Spartans as he posted 491 yards with five touchdowns, slicing San Jose State’s secondary with ease and he has a favorable matchup with the Rams, so another excellent display is expected from the second-year quarterback.
The Rams scored season-low ten points in a blowout loss to the Wolf Pack
Colorado State suffered the third straight defeat and dropped to the bottom of the Mountain West after failing to score in the opening three quarters against the Nevada Wolf Pack, losing 49-10 in the end. The Rams were pretty much clueless offensively as they recorded just 260 yards in opposite to the Wolf Pack’s 636, while they allowed even 404 passing yards with four touchdowns. Colorado State’s passing is their primary offensive weapon as they are a top 20 passing offense that averages 297.9 yards per contest and they are facing Utah State’s defense that allows 226.4 yards to the opposing receivers, so the hosts can hope to have a 200+ passing yard display here. However, their running game is disastrous and the one-dimensional offense will surely not hurt the red-hot Aggies.
Sophomore quarterback Collin Hill is completing 57.7 percent of his passes for 807 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions for the Rams. Hill wasn’t all bad in a loss to the Wolf Pack as he had 186 yards with a touchdown and an interception and he will likely get another start ahead of the senior QB K.J. Carta-Samuels who was benched in the last two games.
- 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference games
- 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in November
- 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points
- 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in November
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Colorado State won four out of the previous even H2H encounters including three of the last four, while the Rams were victorious in the past two meetings at the Canvas Stadium. Although this is a rivalry game and the recent history is on Colorado State’s side, they are not playing well at the moment, while Utah State is one of the best teams in the country, so I am backing the visitors to cover -26 spread. The Aggies have the best offense in college football that is scoring 51.3 points per contest, while the Rams have one of the weakest defenses that is allowing 38.5 points per game, and anything but the Aggies’ big win would be a surprise.
Prediction: Utah State Aggies -26 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
Colorado State’s offense is not bad at all but they are struggling lately and are facing the 31st best defense in the country that is allowing 21.9 points per contest, so it’s going to be hard for them to do damage here. However, the hosts should be good enough for 20+ points, while the Aggies could score between 50 and 60 points with ease, so I am going with over on this one. Over is 8-1 in Aggies last nine games following an ATS win; over is 9-1 in Aggies previous ten games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game, while over is 24-8 in Aggies last 32 conference games.
Prediction: Over 65 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Aggies are in a fantastic form at the moment and anything but a massive win here would be surprising so I expect domination from the visitors and a bunch of touchdowns. Colorado State did win the previous two H2H tilts but the situation is completely different this time around and the hosts are facing a disaster in front of their own fans, so I am going with Utah State to win between 31 and 36 points.
Prediction: Winning Margin: Utah State Aggies 31-36 (+350)
Half-Time Side Pick
Utah State was up at halftime in each of their last nine games and they were victorious in the end in all nine, so it would be a miracle to see the Rams avoiding a huge deficit after the opening 30 minutes on this one. The Aggies will have to cover the -17.5 spread and I don’t think they will have trouble in doing that, so I am backing the visitors to create a comfortable lead in the first half.
Prediction: Utah State Aggies -17.5 (-110)
Half-Time Total Bet
The total is set at 34.5 and the Rams’ only chance to stay in the game is to score as many points as possible in the opening half, while the Aggies will surely be the ones to control the tilt and score at least 25 points. Considering that I am backing over a the end of this game, I am also going with over 34.5 at halftime.
Prediction: Over 34.5 (-110)
Half-Time Prop Prediction
Utah State scored 40+ points in eight out of their previous nine games and I am pretty sure they will reach the 40-point mark without a problem here, so even though the -320 odds are not very attractive, backing the Aggies to win the race to 40 points is a sure shot.
Prediction: Race to 40 Points: Utah State Aggies (-320)