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SMU vs. Navy Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-23-2019

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#181 SMU
Mustangs 3
#182 Navy
Midshipmen -3

Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

SMU

9 - 1

6-4
ATS
9-0
O/U
45
PPG
32
OPPG

Navy

7 - 2

6-3
ATS
6-3
O/U
37
PPG
21
OPPG

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

This is a big one in the American Athletic Conference. No. 21 ranked Southern Methodist travels to Annapolis to face Navy. SMU is 9-1 on the year and 5-1 in the conference while Navy is 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the conference. SMU beat Navy 31-30 last year. Navy is a 3.5 point favorite this week in the early lines. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 p.m. at Navy Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland.

The SMU Mustangs are in a three-way tie atop the AAC's West Division with Memphis and Navy at 5-1. This is a huge game that will obviously go along way toward determining who will win the Division and play for the conference title. SMU suffered its only loss in the conference to Memphis 2 weeks ago 54-48. Last week they topped Eats Carolina 59-51.

Navy, as mentioned, is tied atop the West Division at 5-1. Their only loss in the conference was also to Memphis back in week 5, 35-23. Navy is coming off a loss last week at Notre Dame, who beat them 52-20. The defeat dropped them out of the top 25 nationally. If they win here, they are in good shape as their last conference game is winnable against Houston.

SMU wins shootout over East Carolina

The SMU Mustangs are 9-1 overall and 5-1 in the AAC and they find themselves in a three-way tie atop the AAC's West Division with Memphis and Navy. This is a big game for both teams that could help determine who will win the Division and play for the conference title. SMU suffered its only loss in the conference to Memphis 2 weeks ago 54-48. Last week they topped East Carolina 59-51.

In the shootout win over East Carolina, the Mustangs racked up 636 total yards,. They gave up 644 total yards, which is not great, but they managed to outlast the Pirates. Quarterback Shane Buechele for 33 for 46 for 414 yards and 5 touchdowns. He had 1 interception. Two receivers -- James Proche and Kyle Granson -- had over 100 yards receiving, Proche had a ridiculous 14 catches for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns while Granson had 7 catches for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. Also, running back Xavier Jones rushed for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Navy gets taken out by Notre Dame

Navy is 7-2 on the year and 5-1 in the AAC. They are tied atop the West Division at 5-1 with SMU and Memphis. The Midshipmen's only loss in the conference was to Memphis back in week 5. They lost that one by the score of 35-23. Navy is coming off a lost last week at Notre Dame, who beat them 52-20. The defeat dropped them out of the top 25 nationally. If they win here against SMU, they are in good shape as their last conference game is winnable against Houston.

The Midshipmen had no answers against No. 16 ranked Notre Dame. They ran the ball well, as they usually do, but couldn't stop the Fighting Irish's offense. Navy actually had more first downs and nearly as many yards gained, but turnovers killed them. They coughed it up 4 times and that was the difference. They gained over 280 yards rushing led by quarterback Malcolm Perry, who rushed for 117 yards.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Take Navy here giving up the points. I just don't like SMU's defense. You give up over 600 total yards and nearly 500 yards passing to East Carolina, you have issues. Now,Navy does not pass the ball. They run, run, run, and run more. But SMU, while better against the run, is still not that good. Plus, Navy is home. This is a huge game for Navy and the home crowd will be going crazy. It will be a tough place for SMU to win. The home team is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 meetings. Also, the Mustangs are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 meetings and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings in Navy.

Prediction: Navy -4

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Take the over. This will be another shootout. SMU has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, averaging 45 points per game. Navy is n ot far behind, averaging 39 points per games.I see no reason for either of these teams to come close to those numbers as neither defense is strong enough to impose their will. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two.Also, the over is 4-0 in the Midshipmen's last 4 games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. Further, the over is 4-0 in the Mustangs last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

 

Prediction: Over

David Shields , "Diamond Dave"

Dave has covered every major sport with passion and expertise for national sports publications. In addition to being a sportswriter, Dave has also worked in financial industry and brings a critical eye for numbers to his analysis of games. Dave thoroughly researches the statistics to spot the trends and breakdown the matchups to successfully find the winners in the NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops, and other sports.

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