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The Oklahoma Sooners host the TCU Horned Frogs Saturday in a matchup with potential national implications. Both Oklahoma and TCU are coming off dramatic wins over the weekend. The Sooners came back from a 28-3 deficit to shock Baylor 34-31 and take the lead in the Big 12 standings. The Horned Frogs needed a late field goal for a 33-31 win at Texas Tech.
Oklahoma kept its shrinking College Football Playoff hopes with perhaps the most dramatic win of the season. Down three touchdowns at halftime, quarterback Jalen Hurts led the Sooners to 24 unanswered points including a go-ahead field goal with 1:45 remaining. TCU beat TTU in a near reversal of Oklahoma's victory. The Horned Frogs led 24-3 in the second quarter before letting the Red Raiders climb back and take leads in the third and fourth quarters. Ultimately TCU and freshman quarterback Max Duggan prevailed thanks to a late field goal drive.
Horned Frogs a win away from bowl eligibilityThe TCU Horned Frogs have put together a forgettable 2019 season, but an upset win at Oklahoma would give players and fans alike a lasting memory. TCU had lost four of five games before hanging on to beat Texas Tech over the week. The Horned Frogs out-gained TTU 549-402 yards but saw their 24-3 lead vanish into a 31-30 deficit by the fourth quarter. TCU needed a go-ahead field goal to come out victorious.
With freshman Max Duggan at quarterback, folks in Fort Worth knew they could be in for a long year. Duggan had a poor start to October, throwing one touchdown to three interceptions in losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor. He looked better against TTU, completing 25-42 passes for a season-high 323 passing yards to go with two touchdowns and no interceptions. TCU is a run-first team at heart, though, and top back Darius Anderson could see anywhere from 12 to 20 carries. Anderson has been in a fierce scoring drought of late with no rushing touchdowns in the last five games.
TCU's defense allows the second-fewest yards per game in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma (351.9). The Horned Frogs are second best in pass defense efficiency, too. Nonetheless, TCU has given up far too many points in conference road contests. They gave up 34 to Oklahoma State and 49 to Iowa State. Sophomore safety Trevon Moehrig is a playmaker to watch out for; he has four interceptions and one forced fumble.
Sooners go for senior day winThe Oklahoma Sooners made a statement in their 28-3 comeback against Baylor over the weekend. Oklahoma may be on the outside looking in on the College Football Playoff race, but this is still an explosive team led by one of the best players in the nation in Jalen Hurts. There's always a way," Hurts told reporters after the game "And I think we truly believe that. I know y'all didn't think we were going to come back and win." The Alabama transfer improved his Heisman candidacy with a four-touchdown performance including two scores in the fourth quarter and another drive that set up a game-winning field goal.
Hurts could be without his top receiver Saturday, as CeeDee Lamb remains listed as questionable. Lamb has 13 touchdown grabs on the year and averages 22.3 yards per reception. Sophomore receiver Charleston Rambo is next with five touchdown receptions. Freshman tight end Austin Stogner stepped up Saturday with two receiving touchdowns. Oklahoma is also one of the nation's top rushing teams with Hurts leading the way with 983 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Sophomore running back Kennedy Brooks has another 608 yards and three scores.
Defensively, OU tops the Big 12 in yards allowed per game (348). That doesn't tell the full story, though. In each of the last three games, the Sooners have had defensive meltdowns. They gave up 34 points to Kansas State in a span of two quarters, allowed 20 fourth-quarter points to Iowa State and led Baylor to drop 31 points in the first half. The goal for OU Saturday will be to play 60 minutes of consistent defense. Otherwise, the Sooners could be in for another tough game.
- Over is 6-1 in Sooners last seven games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
The top supporting trends for this game, found on covers.com, are:
- Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- Horned Frogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I'm banking on the Oklahoma Sooners defense stepping up Saturday after three straight sub-par performances. What gives me this confidence is that OU faces a freshman TCU quarterback in Max Duggan. Duggan can be wildly inconsistent at times, and playing on the road against the Big 12's top overall defense in yards allowed should give him fits. Meanwhile, I expect the Sooners offense to keep on chugging along.
Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners -18
Full-Game Total Pick
Even with over being bet up a couple points since lines opened, it looks like the more attractive pick here. The Sooners rank 11th nationally with 47 points per game and get to face a TCU defense that ranks in the middle of the Big 12 in points allowed. Expect OU to come close to its season scoring average if not pass it. With the way that the Sooners defense has looked in past weeks, I don't expect anything close to them pitching a shutout. This one should go over.
Prediction: Over 65