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The final Pac-12 game of Week 13 will be our game, Washington at Colorado. The Huskies are currently bowl eligible but this is a huge game for Colorado's bowl chances. At 4-6, they'll need to win their final two games in order to extend their season.
ESPN will broadcast the game at 10:00 P.M ET.
Colorado hasn't beaten Washington since joining the Pac 12. In seven meetings, the Buffaloes have gone 0-7, including a 27-13 loss last season. Additionally, the Buffaloes have only covered once since the two teams became conference rivals. The last time Colorado beat Washington was in 1996.
Huskies Coming Off Big WinThe Washington Huskies became eligible for a bowl two weekends ago when they went on the road and beat an improved Oregon State team. The win gave them their sixth win and third win in Pac-12 play. The conference is better than expected this season but that hasn't stopped UW from showing their talent. Washington beat No. 21 USC earlier this season and their two other games against ranked Pac-12 teams (No. 12 Utah, No. 9 Oregon) resulted in close losses. Combined, they lost by just nine points against Utah (33-28) and Oregon (35-31). That said, a loss early in the season to Cal is now considered a bad loss.
Washington is a balanced team. They can outscore you, like they did against Arizona (51-27), or they can play ugly and beat you up on defense, as they did against Oregon State (19-7). On Saturday, they'll need their offense to take advantage of Colorado's poor defense, and their defense to stifle a Buffs' offense capable of going off.
The Huskies don't turn the ball over much and that could be the biggest factor on Saturday. Quarterback Jacob Eason has proven he can take care of the rock, throwing seven picks and taking 12 sacks on 300+ attempts, and overall, they're averaging just 1.3 giveaways per game.
Buffs are Jekyll & HydeThe thing about the Colorado Buffaloes is that you never know what kind of team you're going to get. This team has beaten two ranked teams this season, scoring 34 points in each game (vs. #25 Nebraska, at #24 Arizona State), and were less than a touchdown away from beating USC in a game where they scored 31 points. Now to the bad games: the Buffs have scored less than 17 points four different times, all against conference teams.
One last time at Folsom Field 🏟️— Colorado Buffaloes Football (@CUBuffsFootball) November 20, 2019
Thank You, Seniors! pic.twitter.com/v0WnWeLLGd
Luckily, the Buffs are home this weekend and their worst games have been on the road (three points at Oregon, 10 points at Washington State). At home, they beat Nebraska and Stanford, and they haven't suffered a home loss by more than one score.
Colorado goes as senior quarterback Steven Montez goes. In three games where Montez has had a passer rating of 150.0 or higher, they're 3-0. When he's awful, though, and his passer rating is under 100.0, they've been outscored 86-13. He may be in line for one of his good games against UW because it's at home. Montez has a 139.9 passer rating at home this year with 10:3 TD-INT ratio and a 64.8 percent completion percentage. On the road, everything goes down (109.6 passer rating, 4:7 TD-INT ratio, 59.8 completion percentage).
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This play is as solid as it gets this weekend. Colorado is a totally different squad at home and the fact they're getting more than two touchdowns is really juicy. At home, they're averaging 11.5 more points per game on offense (26.8/home vs. 15.3/road) and allowing 8.2 fewer points per game on defense (28.8/home vs. 37/road). On top of that, we get all those points to work with, as well as the fact that the Buffs are hosting their senior night and they can get a game closer to bowl eligibility with a win. Underclassmen are going to play their tails off for the seniors and the seniors will leave it all on the field in their final home game. Public action is on Washington (63%); we need to fade that action and be on the correct side.
Prediction: Colorado Buffaloes +14.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Both teams are coming off games where the final total was under 30 points. Neither team is a defensive stalwart, though, so that tells me both teams are due for a breakout offensively. Washington is averaging 6.1 yards per play, better than the FBS average, and Colorado's offense always hums much better at home. For Colorado, their best player (Montez) is playing his final home game so you can be sure he'll be dead set on putting on a show for the fans he's entertained the last few years. The Buffs have had all but one of their home games go over 52. Trends may say otherwise but the over is the right play in this game.
Prediction: Over 52