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#197 Nevada at #198 San Diego State
When and where: Nov. 9, 2019. SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA, 8 p.m.
San Diego State is 7-1 and has won four straight games. The Aztecs sit in first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division. Nevada is 5-4 and working on their second quarterback of the season. The Aztecs can get closer to a first-place finish and a game in the MWC championship game with the victory.
Wolf Pack hoping for strong play from QB
Carson Strong is the Wolf Pack’s starting quarterback again. He started the season but then was then benched for Malik Henry. Now Henry is out to concentrate on academics and Strong is back in. He has thrown for 1,281 yards on the season with five touchdowns and six interceptions. Toa Taua leads a strong rushing attack with 562 yards on 143 carries.
Last week, Nevada beat New Mexico, 21-10. Strong threw for two touchdowns and 305 yards. Devonte Lee led the rushing attack with 68 yards. Taua scored Nevada’s other touchdown.
The Wolf Pack offense averages 358.6 yards per game, good for 102nd nationally, but rush for 121.2 yards (61st). They score just 19.3 points per game (116th). The defense has been porous, giving up 34.6 points per game (116th) and 414.8 yards (86th).
Aztecs looking for fifth straight win
The Aztecs have moved into the Top 25 on both rankings after a strong start to the season. They are coming off a bye and playing a Nevada team that beat them last year, 28-24.
The defense leads the way for San Diego State. They give up only 14.1 points per game (8th nationally) and 283.6 total yards (12th). They are especially tough against the run, giving up only 70 yards per game (third). They play a conservative brand of offense, accumulating only 330 yards per game (112th).
Ryan Agnew is efficient at quarterback, passing for 1,417 yards with 10 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Although he has been injured throughout the season, Juwan Washington leads the rushing attack with 432 yards. Kobe Smith has been a big-play receiver with 514 yards and four touchdowns.
In their last game two weeks ago, the Aztecs went on the road to beat UNLV, 20-17. San Diego State led 17-0 in the first half and held on for the victory. UNLV missed a game-tying field goal attempt at the end of the game.
• Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
• Aztecs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass
• Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning record
The supporting trends for this game, found on Covers.com, are:
• Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
• Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass
• Wolf Pack are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in November
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
It would seem like a stretch to give 17.5 points with the Aztecs when they only average 21.8 points per game. Particularly at home, where the Aztecs are only 1-2 against the spread on their home turf.
The San Diego State defense is good, but they gave up 17 points, including 10 in the second half, to let UNLV come back to make the game close two weeks ago. Nevada has enough offensive weapons to make the game competitive. And even if they don’t, the Aztecs don’t have enough offense to cover the big number.
Prediction: Nevada +17.5
Full-Game Total Pick
It’s not often you would want to take the over in a game featuring one of the best offenses in the country against a below average defense. But 38 points is only 19 points per team.
San Diego State’s last game fell at 37 total points, but Nevada is a much better team than UNLV and the Aztecs are coming off a bye week so they should surpass that number.
Take Over 38
Prediction: Over 38