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North Texas Mean Green vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
NCAAF: Saturday, November 9, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST
North Texas has won two of their last three games and with three games remaining, they need two wins to become bowl eligible. They are coming off a 52-26 blowout win over UTEP and the Mean Green sit at 3-2 in Conference USA play. While North Texas has the offense, especially the passing offense that ranks 16th in the nation, their defense only ranks 87th. None of their three wins in conference play have come facing a team with a winning record.
Louisiana Tech is red-hot, as they have won seven in a row after losing their season opener on the road facing a ranked Texas team. They are at 4-0 in Conference USA play and in their last three games the Bulldogs have put up an average of 52 ppg.
Last season at North Texas the Bulldogs beat the Mean Green 29-27.
Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last five games facing North Texas.
Fine goes offIn North Texas’ last game Mason Fine threw for a career high seven TD and he has 12 TD and no picks in his last two games.
Nice costume. He has passed for 2,609 yards with 27 TD and six INT on the season and three players for the Mean Green have at least 419 receiving yards led by Jaelon Darden (639 yards 11 TD). Fine will be facing the weakness of the Louisiana Tech defense, which is their pass defense that only ranks 101st in the nation.
While Fine is the big gun for the Mean Green the team can also run the ball. Tre Siggers leads the team with 715 rushing yards, and he is averaging a more than solid 6.6 yards per carry. He has totaled 213 rushing yards in his last two games and in this contest faces a Tech run D that ranks 51st in the nation. Not only have the Mean Green not beaten a team with a winning record in conference play but they have also lost all four of their road games. In their four road losses this season they have given up an average of 39 ppg.
Rested and at homeLouisiana Tech is not only undefeated at home this season, but they are rested for this game coming off a bye week. The Bulldogs’ offense has been clicking in their last three games andJ’Mar Smith has passed for at least 325 yards in each of his last two games. Tech has a deep WR corps with five players with at least 201 receiving yards and Cee Jay Powell and Malik Stanley each have at least 433 receiving yards. Justin Henderson leads the team with 654 rushing yards and after rushing for at least 111 yards in two straight games he only rushed for 65 yards averaging 3.8 yards per game in the last game, which was a 42-21 win over UTEP.
Fine may have to light up the Tech defense for North Texas to have a chance to win this game. The defense has been poor for the Mean Green, especially on the road, and they only rank 72nd in the nation defending the pass and 94th defending the run.
According to betting trends from Covers.com the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are:
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
According to betting trends from Covers.com the North Texas Mean Green are:
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games
- 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games
- 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
So, Tech is undefeated at home and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and North Texas is winless on the road and 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Yeah, not a tough call in this one. Fine may put up big numbers but the Mean Green will get schooled on defense, as the Bulldogs will light up the scoreboard. Louisiana Tech will win this game handily and cover the spread winning their 8th straight game.
Prediction: Lousiana Tech
Full-Game Total Pick
Last season in Louisiana Tech's win over North Texas the total went Under but that will not happen this time around. Both teams will put up yards and points but with the defense that the Mean Green have the Bulldogs will be the team that really lights up the scoreboard. Tech's offense will not be stopped in this game, which will be a shootout so take the Over.