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Auburn vs. Purdue Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 12-28-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#241 Auburn
Tigers -3.5
#242 Purdue
Boilermakers 54.5

Friday, December 28, 2018 at 1:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Auburn Tigers

7 - 5

5-7
ATS
4-8
O/U
28
PPG
19
OPPG

Purdue Boilermakers

6 - 6

6-5
ATS
6-6
O/U
31
PPG
27
OPPG

For another look at today’s bowl game, check out our short video:

Purdue Boilermakers vs Auburn Tigers

What: FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL

Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville Tennessee

When: Friday, December 28, 2018   1:30 pm Eastern

We have a good one brewing in Nashville when the Purdue Boilermakers and the Auburn Tigers clash in the FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL. Purdue finished third this season in the Big Ten West and Auburn finished fifth in the SEC West. Should be a great way to spend a Friday afternoon in late December.

Purdue is 3-0 Against Nationally Ranked Opponents

Purdue battled this season to a 6-6 record and a fourth-place finish in the Big Ten West. The Boilermakers were a perfect 3-0 against ranked teams this season, defeating Ohio State, Boston College and Iowa. Purdue would make their up and down season complete with a win over Auburn.

Purdue has a small injury report for their game against Auburn with no significant injuries to report.

Purdue scores an average of 31 points and with an average of 459 yards of offense per game. 317 passing yards and the man mostly responsible for this is senior quarterback David Blough. Blough has thrown for 3521 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. Blough has a 66 percent completion rate, been sacked 25 times and has a quarterback rating of 151.8 this season.

Blough was recently asked what being a quarterback in this Bowl Game meant to him. Say’s Blough: ““Yeah, after seeing some of the rough days here, we struggled to get over three wins a few years ago, right. Being able to help the team and just try to do my job as best I can to help us get to six wins, you know, now being able to be a part of that after five years, it is special. I take a lot of pride in it. I’m going to approach it with the respect it deserves, and we’ll look forward to competing in that game. But yeah, it means a great deal to me. You’re going to get our best shot, that’s for sure. You’ve got senior leaders on the team who are going to make sure we try to end this thing the right way. So yeah, it means a lot of after some of the things we’ve been through, obviously, but yeah, it feels good.”

The Boilermakers average a total of 141 rushing yards per contest and are led by senior running back D.J. Knox with 868 yards and eight touchdowns. Also putting in work this season was senior running back Markell Jones with 502 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Freshman wide receiver Rondale Moore is one of seven Boilermakers with at least 100 receiving yards this season. Moore has 103 catches for 1164 yards and 12 touchdowns and an additional 203 rushing yards and a lone touchdown. Senior wide receiver Isaac Zico is another Blough favorite with 43 receptions for 712 yards and six touchdowns this season for the Boilermakers.

Purdue allows 27 points and 441 total yards this season. 276 of those yards are via the air and 164 rushing yards is how Purdue opponents mostly score their points against Purdue. The Boilermakers have recorded 25 sacks, picked off 11 passes and have taken one of those interceptions to the house in 2018!

Kenny Dillingham Named New Offensive Coordinator

Auburn has had an up and down 2018 campaign, finishing with a 7-5 record and a fifth-place finish in the SEC East. Auburn has a 2-3 record against top 25 teams, boasting victories over Texas A&M and Washington. A victory over the Boilermakers would be a nice notch on their season total and something to point to as motivation for their spring practices.

The Tigers have a lengthy injury report highlighted by defensive lineman Nick Coe, who had surgery on his wrist the 12th of December. Coe is their leading pass rusher, and this is a serious loss for the Tigers.

Auburn scores an average of 28 points and averages a total of 373 total yards per game. 209 passing yards per game is mostly due to junior quarterback Jarrett Stidham and his 2421 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Stidham has also rushed for an additional -5 yards and three touchdowns this season.

Stidham has opted to forgo his senior season and enter the 2019 NFL Draft. Auburn Head Coach Gus Malzahn had this to say about the star quarterback;

“Jarrett has been a terrific player for us the last two years, leading us to an SEC West title and becoming one of the most prolific passers in Auburn history,” head coach Gus Malzahn said in a statement. He has tremendous ability and a bright future ahead of him.  I look forward to seeing Jarrett perform one more time in an Auburn uniform and can’t wait to see him playing in the NFL next year and for years to come.”

The Tigers average 164 rushing yards and leading the way for Auburn is freshman running back JaTarvious Whitlow with 777 yards and four touchdowns and junior running back Kam Martin, with 400 yards and one touchdown.

Six Tigers players have at least 100 receiving yards, led by senior wide receiver Ryan Davis with 523 yards, junior wide receiver Darius Slayton and his 510 yards and one touchdown and freshman wide receiver Seth Williams has 479 yards and five touchdowns in 2018.

Auburn allows an average of 19 points and 363 yards of offense per game. 209 are passing yards and 140 rushing yards is how Auburn opponents mostly score their points. The Tigers rank #16 with 35 sacks, have 12 interceptions and have taken to of those to the house this season.

Updated on Dec 26 at 3:00pm EST

Update prepared by our editoral staff

Public Money / Line Movements

Auburn (53%) is getting most of the public money on the spread while 63% of the public is betting on the money line. The line opened at -4 and moved to -3. The total has jumped from 54.5 to 55.5.

Injury / Weather Report

The weather in Nashville is expected to be partly sunny, with wind 4-9 and 61 degrees.

Injuries:

Purdue:

no major key injuries.

Auburn:

DL Nick Cowe (undisclosed) is doubtful. One of their top DL.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I like the Boilermakers in big games against ranked opponents, but I like Auburn to cover the spread in this game. The Tigers will miss Coe, but he didn’t record all 35 sacks this defense has been credited for this season. Purdue doesn’t protect their quarterback very well and that defense is going to give Blough fits on Friday afternoon. Rondale Moore will surely get his but Auburn is probably a touchdown better than Purdue. I will bet on Auburn to win this game and cover the spread.

Prediction: Auburn -4.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

This one has all the makings of an over the total game. We have two solid offenses going up against a shaky Purdue defense and a banged up Tigers defense. This is going to be a shootout and these two teams might hit that total bey the third quarter, Should be a fun game to watch with some very talented offensive players on Friday. I’m playing the over!!

Prediction: Over 54 Points

Phil Naessens

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