New Mexico State vs. Boise State, 9/14/17 – Prediction
New Mexico Lobos (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U) vs. Boise State Broncos (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
NCAAF: Thursday, September 14, 2017 at 8 p.m. ET Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID
The Line: Boise State -16
New Mexico won their opening game of the season facing Abilene Christian, but they lost their last game against in-state rival New Mexico State. They gave up 30 points in that game and that is not good facing a Boise State team that scored 44 points in their last game. Last season at home the Lobos were crushed by the Broncos losing 49-21, but they did beat them the last time at Boise State.
Boise State is coming off a heartbreaking loss to a ranked Washington State squad in triple OT. They put up 44 points in the loss, but gave up 47 and they look to take out their frustrations at home in this prime time game against New Mexico. Since 2000 Boise State has the best home record in college football (103-6).
New Mexico is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Boise State and the road team has covered the spread in five of the last seven match ups between these Mountain West Conference foes.
Comeback falls just short
New Mexico lost to New Mexico State 30-28 in their last game where they came back and scored 23 points in the 4th quarter, but the comeback came up short. They ran the ball well and had 430 total yards, but they also gave up 500 yards and were torched in the air giving up 401 passing yards. Backup QB Tekava Tuioti nearly engineered the comeback passing for 151 yards with two TD taking over for the ineffective Lamar Jordan, who had two INT and no TD. The Lobos did rush for 176 yards in the game with four players with at least 30 rushing yards led by Jay Griffin IV, who had 61 yards on a single run. New Mexico will have to run the ball well in this game to keep their defense off the field.
Lack of D in the 4th quarter
Boise State lost to Washington State 47-44 in triple overtime in their last game where their D let them down in the 4th quarter. They had only given up 10 points through three quarters, but then gave up 21 in the 4th quarter. The Broncos stuffed the run in the game holding WSU to only 22 rushing yards, but they gave up 433 passing yards. Backup QB Montell Cozart came in for Brett Rypien and was 12 for 20 for 161 yards and two TD and one INT and was also the leading rusher galloping for 72 yards. Alexander Mattison rushed for 63 yards in the game averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The Broncos had four turnovers in the game including three lost fumbles and they have to avoid the turnover in this conference match up. Rypien left the game with a head injury and he is a question mark for this game.
The New Mexico Lobos are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September
The Boise State Broncos are:
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September
- 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
Boise State has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 home games, but that trend will not continue. Their last loss was a tough one to take and they will throttle the Lobos in their house racking up a ton of yards. They will get back in the win column in a blowout and avenge the 2015 home defeat against New Mexico.