Featured Video from Scott Reichel
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers, Preview, and Odds
NCAAF: Saturday, September 14, 2019, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana, 7:30 pm EDT
The TCU Horned Frogs didn’t have problems against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions in the opening week as they secured a comfortable 39-7 win. It’s going to be a whole different story against the Purdue Boilermakers on the road as the hosts have one of the most exciting passing offenses in the country.
The tight affair is expected, and it could go either way and at the moment, the visitors are slight favorites. The Boilermakers didn’t have luck in Week 1 as they suffered a narrow defeat to Nevada but responded at home against the Vanderbilt Commodores. These teams have never met before.
The strong second-half display from the Horned Frogs enough to beat Arkansas-Pine
TCU opened the new season with an easy home 39-7 victory over the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions thanks to an excellent defense that kept the visitors off the scoreboard for three quarters. Quarterbacks Max Duggan and Alex Delton combined for 284 yards and a touchdown while the latter also led the team in rushing yards with 67 on seven carries. Junior wideout Jalen Reagor dropped some passes early on and also had a muffed punt return, but responded well later in the game and scored a touchdown. TreVontae Hights led all the receivers with 108 yards on eight catches.
Purdue has a top 30 defense against the run as they allow only 90.0 yards per game, so the visitors will likely have to turn to their passing. The Boilermakers’ secondary is letting even 357.5 passing yards to the opposing quarterbacks, and the Horned Frogs will get an opportunity to burn them on Saturday. Junior linebacker Garret Wallow impressed with 13 tackles (8 solos), including 2.5 for loss with one sack, and he will pose the biggest threat to Purdue’s QB Elijah Sindelar.
Bad news, we don't play football today. Good news, we have something to help get you through this difficult time.
— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) September 7, 2019
TreVontae Hights had the best game of his career, and he was happy with both quarterbacks, hailing their leadership. “I thought they stayed pretty composed,” said Hights. “Their leadership was great. I feel comfortable with either one of them.”
Elijah Sindelar led the Boilermakers in a win over Vanderbilt
After dropping a win over the Nevada Wolf Pack on the road, the Purdue Boilermakers bounced back against the Vanderbilt Commodores at home, securing a 42-24 win. Senior quarterback Elijah Sindelar had one of the best games of his career as he completed 34 of 52 passes for 509 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He also added another TD on the ground and connected with nine different receivers. Rondale Moore was unstoppable with 220 receiving yards and a score on 13 catches, and he and Sindelar should continue with great partnership when Purdue welcomes TCU on Saturday.
The Boilermakers are currently the third-best passing offense in college football with incredible 466.0 yards per contest. The Horned Frogs allowed just 114 passing yards in their win over Arkansas-Pine. Purdue is a more dangerous opponent, though, and TCU’s secondary will be under a lot of pressure.
The visitors don’t have to worry about Purdue’s running game, which is one of the worst in the country, averaging only 63.5 yards per game. TC U’s hopes that they will not have to face red-hot Sindelar are quickly evaporating. Namely, Sindelar suffered a mild concussion in a win over Vanderbilt, but he is listed as probable for this clash, so we will likely not going to see freshman Jack Plummer starting.
Running out of superlatives… and we're only in week 3.
Rondale Moore in the NCAA Rankings.
1⃣: Receiving yards per game (172.0)
1⃣: Receiving yards (344)
1⃣: Receptions (24)
1⃣: All-purpose yards per game (229.5)
2⃣: Receptions per game (12.0)#Back4Moore pic.twitter.com/QpO1fn0aEe
— Purdue Football (@BoilerFootball) September 10, 2019
Head coach Jack Brohm was full of superlatives for Rondale Moore, who is currently leading the NCAA in several categories, including receiving yards per game and receptions. “My view is pretty high of Rondale so I don’t know if it can get much higher,” Brohm said. “But for someone to continually come through every week and raise the bar and not be satisfied, that’s Rondale Moore. He was tremendous.”
- 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September
- 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games
- 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
- 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played on a Saturday
- 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games on grass
- 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
As I mentioned before, Elijah Sindelar is probable to face TCU, and that will be a huge problem for the Horned Frogs’ secondary. Even though TCU is known as one of the best defensive teams in college football in recent years, the tandem of Sindelar and Rondale Moore is good enough to unlock any defense. I am backing two of them to dictate the tempo here. Purdue will not pay much attention to their running, and I also don’t expect TCU to run the ball often against a sturdy Boilermakers’ D against the run.
The Horned Frogs allowed just even points in their opening win, but it was against weak Arkansas-Pine, and Purdue is a way stronger opponent. TCU’s offensive line did let three sacks in that game while Purdue also recorded three sacks in a win over the Commodores. I am backing the home team’s D to have a better showing in this one. It could go either way, and the bookies know it, but I am backing Purdue to cover the +2.5 spread.
Prediction: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is set at 51 and considering that both teams will likely focus more on their passing offenses, I am backing a high-scoring affair here. Purdue scored 30+ points in each of their last six home games, but they also allowed 58 points so far in the season and almost 500 yards to Vanderbilt last week. TCU’s defense is better, but their secondary will probably concede multiple touchdowns while that is also going to be the case with Purdue’s secondary on the other end. That’s why I am going with Over.
Prediction: Over 51 (-110)