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Texas State Bobcats vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction, Preview, and Odds
NCAAF: Saturday, September 14, 2019, Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas, 7:00 pm EDT
The Texas State Bobcats was desperate to bounce back from a Week 1 heavy defeat to Teas A&M. They opened a game with the Wyoming Cowboys well, but the visitors rallied in the second half to hand the bobcats the second loss of the year. The Bobcats will have a much harder job against the favored Mustangs who have a top 30 offense.
It seems that another defeat is on the cards for Jake Spavital’s men. SMU, on the other hand, jumped to 2-0 after another tremendous offensive display. This time, they beat the North Texas Mean Green at home with an excellent mix of passing and running, and the visitors didn’t find the right answer for the Mustangs’ high-flying offense. These rivals hadn’t met in the last ten years as the previous H2H encounter was played in September 2008 when SMU secured a 47-36 victory.
A poor second-half performance cost the Bobcats a win over Wyoming
The Texas State Bobcats opened the year with a disappointing 41-7 loss to the Texas A&M Aggies. Everybody expected them to show a much better display in a home game against the Wyoming Cowboys, and it started well for the Bobcats. They were 14-10 up at halftime, but their offense was shut down in the second 30 minutes as the Cowboys escaped with a 23-14 win. Junior quarterback Gresch Jensen completed 33of 54 passes for 394 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. One of those interceptions was returned for a 72-yard TD in the third quarter, and that was the moment when all started to go down for the Bobcats. Even though they collected more yards (444-293) and won 27 first downs in opposite to Wyoming’s 16, the turnovers killed Texas State in this one.
Hutch White was quite busy as he finished the game with ten receptions for 96 yards, but the Bobcats’ running game was rather ineffective. Caleb Twyford did add 60 rushing yards with a score, but the Bobcats have the worst running offense in the country after the first two weeks, averaging miserable 29.0 yards per game. Even though SMU is allowing 150.5 yards to the opposing runners, it’s going to be another tough game on the ground for the visitors here. Texas State does have a top 30 passing offense that averages 302.5 yards per contest so that Gresch Jensen will be their only chance for a win on Saturday.
The opening quarter display was good enough for the Mustangs to get a win over North Texas
The SMU Mustangs scored 21 unanswered points in the first quarter and later maintained a comfortable lead to secure a 49-27 win over the North Texas Mean Green. Junior quarterback Shane Buechele completed 21 of 31 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns. James Proche led all the receivers with 115 yards and a touchdown on seven catches while Reggie Roberson Jr. added 94 yards and a couple of scores.
— SMU FootbaII (@SMU_Football) September 8, 2019
The Mustangs’ passing game continues to be a top 20, and even though the Bobcats have a solid secondary that allows 167.5 yards per game, Buechele will have another chance to put a great display. In case the hosts have problems to move the ball through the air, they could turn to Xavier Jones, who was fantastic with 127 yards and three TD’s on 16 carries. Texas State has one of the worst defense against the run, allowing 218.0 yards per contest, and Jones should have another 100+yard game here.
- 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent in the Sun Belt conference
- 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in Week 3
- 10-4 SU in their last 14 games at home
- 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- 2-16 SU in their last 18 games on the road
- 1-8 SU in their last nine games played in September
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Mustangs are absolute favorites in this one, and there are several reasons why I am picking them to cover the -17.5 spread. Texas State’s offensive line is quite weak as they allowed five sacks in the loss to Wyoming while SMU recorded five sacks in a win over North Texas as Patrick Nelson and Demerick Gary had two apiece. They will torture the Bobcats offensive line and put Gresch Jensen under a lot of pressure. Also, Texas State’s running game is the worst in the country, so the hosts can expect them to attempt plenty of passes.
I am backing the Mustangs’ secondary to respond with some interceptions. SMU has a terrific offense this year as they are averaging 42.5 points per game so far while Texas State is one of the worst in college football, averaging miserable 10.5 points per contest. Running back Xavier Jones should put another dominant display on the ground against the leaky defense. SMU will cover the spread with ease.
Prediction: SMU Mustangs -17.5 (-110)
Full-Game Total Pick
The total is set at 59.5, which is tricky, considering Texas State ineffective offense. None of Texas State’s last five games produced more than 48 points, and although SMU’s offense could easily provide around 40 points here, I am going with Under. The visitors will have a lot of problems to move the ball, so I expect the Mustangs to have plenty of possession and to run the ball. We need two solid offenses to back Over, but in this case, we only have one, and that’s the main reason I am going with Under.
Prediction: Under 59.5 (-110)