Air Force vs. Michigan, 9-16-2017 - Pick and Prediction
Written by: Jason Green
Air Force Falcons (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U) vs. Michigan Wolverines (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-0-1 O/U)
NCAAF: Saturday, September 16, 2017 at 12 p.m. ET Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
The Line: Michigan -26 O/U 53.5
Air Force has only played one game, but it was a good one with a blowout over VMI. To say the Falcons have a little tougher of a test in this game would be an understatement facing a top 10 Michigan team on the road. Air Force rushed for a whopping 457 yards in the win over VMI, but can they move the chains facing Michigan? Big question.
Michigan has gotten off to a good start this season beating a ranked Florida team in their season opener and while they won by 22 points in their last game facing Cincinnati they did not look that great. Early in the 2nd half in the Cincy game, they were booed by home fans only up three points before reeling off 19 straight points. The Wolverines stuffed the run in that game and if they can do that against Air Force they will move to 3-0.
These teams met last in the 2012 season at Michigan where the Wolverines beat the Falcons 31-25.
Blowout would be putting it mildly
Air Force won their opening game of the season beating VMI 62-0 in a totally dominating game. They had 647 total yards in the game while they only gave up 95 and they forced a turnover. QB Arion Worthman was 8 for 12 for 172 yards with two TDs and no INT and Timothy McVey and Geraud Sanders, who had two TD, each had over 60 receiving yards. The Falcons dominated on the ground rushing for 457 yards with eight players having at least 32 rushing yards led by McVey, who rushed for 98 yards and a TD averaging nearly 9.8 yards per carry. He is a 5’ 9” running back that can slip between the tackles and is also solid catching balls out of the backfield. He has a lot of pressure on him in this game and will be counted on to be the main weapon for Air Force.
A win is a win
The Wolverines were not overly impressive in their last game beating Cincinnati 36-14. Head coach Jim Harbaugh was not happy even after the win and you can be sure he let his players know about it this week in practice. Michigan out-gained Cincinnati 414 yards to 200 yards and they forced two turnovers, but they also committed two turnovers. Their run defense played well holding the Bearcats to only 68 rushing yards. QB Wilton Speight was 17 for 29 for 221 yards with two TD and no INT and Kekoa Crawford caught four balls for 83 yards and a TD, The one player the Falcons really have to worry about is Ty Isaac, who rushed for 133 yards averaging 6.7 yards per carry in the win over Cincinnati. He has rushed for over 110 yards in the first two games and if Air Force cannot contain him they will be in trouble. Air Force has a revamped defense this season and they will see how good they are facing a Michigan team that may come out gang-busters after a sluggish last game at home.
The Air Force Falcons are:
The Michigan Wolverines are:
- 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September
A lot of the betting trends point to Air Force in this game and Michigan is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games facing teams from the Mountain West Conference. However, after a less than impressive last game Harbaugh will have his team ready for this one and they will play a much better game this Saturday. Isaac will have another solid game and Michigan’s run D will keep the Falcons from racking up the rushing yards. Add those things up and you get a Michigan win where they will cover the spread.
PICK: Michigan -26
I dig every sport and the NFL is my favorite. My team is the Redskins and my 2nd favorite is whoever is playing the Cowboys! I am a great handicapper and if you don’t believe me just ask. I don’t just write about betting on games I actually bet on them and I have done well, which is why it is a good idea to follow my picks.
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