LSU vs. Mississippi St, 9-16-2017 - Expert Prediction
Written by: Jason Green
LSU Tigers (2-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
NCAAF: Saturday, September 16, 2017 at 7 p.m. ET Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, MS
The Line: LSU -6.5
A ranked LSU squad and Mississippi State face off in the SEC opener for both teams. After blanking BYU in their season opener the Tigers had another solid effort last week where they only gave up 10 points facing Chattanooga. They have averaged 259 rushing yards per game in their first two games and last season at home they beat MSU 23-20. While LSU has played great defense in their first two games
MSU has been lighting it up on offense scoring 49 points and 57 points in their first two games. This is the first game of a killer stretch where they have three in a row facing top 25 teams. Like LSU the Bulldogs have a legit rushing attack and will face a Tigers team that only gave up 68 rushing yards in their last game.
LSU is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against MSU on the road.
Balanced game leads Tigers to win
LSU beat Chattanooga 45-10 in their last game where they were solid on both sides of the ball. They outgained Chattanooga 454 yards to 242 and they had over 200 rushing and passing yards in the game. In even more balance the Tigers scored 14 points in each of the first three quarters. Danny Etling was 8 for 14 in the game with 227 yards and a TD and no INT and averaged 16.2 yards per reception. D.J. Chark had 100 receiving yards and the player that the Bulldogs really have to worry about is RB Derrius Guice. In the last game, he rushed for 102 yards with two TD averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He has rushed for over 100 yards this season and last season in the win over MSU he only had 19 yards on five carries.
Mississippi State beat Louisiana Tech 57-21 in their last game there they rushed for 327 yards. Overall, the Bulldogs had 459 total yards in the game holding Tech to 315 yards and they forced three turnovers. Nick Fitzgerald was 12 for 18 for 124 yards with three TD and one INT and he also was the team’s leading rusher with 111 yards with two TD averaging 11.1 yards per carry. Aeris Williams joins him in the backfield and the RB had 107 yards in the blowout win. While MSU beat Tech pretty easily they still gave up 152 rushing yards and that has to be a concern with Guice coming to town. If they cannot stop him they may be in a for a long night. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the spread against the Tigers in 13 of the last 19 games facing them.
The LSU Tigers are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
- 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall
- 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win
MSU gave LSU a scare in their house last season, but this game will not be as close. LSU has the better running game with Guice and that will be the key in this SEC match up. Both teams will look to the run, but Guice will be the player with the best game and add that to a good LSU run defense and you get a Tigers W.
I dig every sport and the NFL is my favorite. My team is the Redskins and my 2nd favorite is whoever is playing the Cowboys! I am a great handicapper and if you don’t believe me just ask. I don’t just write about betting on games I actually bet on them and I have done well, which is why it is a good idea to follow my picks.
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