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Air Force vs. Utah State,
9-22-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#391 Air Force
Falcons 63.5
#392 Utah State
Aggies -10.5

Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 10:25pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Air Force Falcons

1 - 1


Utah State Aggies

2 - 1


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies

Where and when:  Maverick Stadium, Logan, Utah, Saturday, 10:15 pm EST

The Air Force Falcons will travel to Maverick Stadium in Logan, Utah, for week four college football action versus the Utah State Aggies on Saturday night at 10:15 pm EST.  The Falcons would not only win three of the last four meetings amongst the two squads, but, would win three straight, overall, while covering in three straight games as well.  Their last meeting at Maverick Stadium would see Air Force pick up the 27-20 road win while covering the 5.5 points while the under was the play with 53.5 points being set for the contest.  In their last outing, the Falcons would fall on the road to the Florida Atlantic Owls by a 33-27 score, yet, would cover the spread as 8 point underdogs while the total of 61 points were not surpassed.  The Aggies, on the other hand, dominated the Golden Eagles of Tennessee Tech on last Saturday by a score of 73-12 at home as they would pick up their second win of the season.  It would be important to note that the favorite in these matchups is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Aggies down Golden Eagles at home

Utah State would have no problems at all disposing of the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles on Saturday as they would jump out to a 45-6 lead at the half while outscoring them 28-3 in the second en route to a blowout victory thanks to 236 passing yards by QB Jordan Love while Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright would lead the rushing attack with a combined 19 carries for 162 yards along with two touchdowns in the win.  Justen Hervey would chip in 52 yards on three carries in the victory while the receiving corps was led by Dax Raymond and Carson Terrell with 57 and 37 yards receiving, respectfully.

After such a dominant performance, their 41st ranked rushing attack will attempt to exploit the 2nd ranked rush defense in the nation for the Falcons which are giving up only 42 yards per outing thus far while the passing offense for Utah State will look to square off against the Falcons 99th ranked pass defense. Air Force already has one of their defensive backs already sidelined for the season in James Jones IV due to a knee injury while Robert Bullard is day to day with an undisclosed injury.  Finally, it will be intriguing to see how the 4th ranked offense in points scored in Utah State matches up versus the Falcons defense which is only 30th in the nation in allowing 16.5 points per outing to their opponents in 2018.

Falcons come up short on the road versus Owls

The Falcons were down at the half by a 19-7 score on the road to Florida Atlantic on Saturday only to outscore them 20-14 in the second half, yet, only to fall short of the victory in a 33-27 loss as Air Force would come roaring back early in the third quarter with Kade Waguespack being on the receiving end of an Isiah Sanders touchdown pass to make the game 19-14 in favor of the home team; However, the Owls would increase their lead on a Chris Robinson 48 yarder to Javon Durante with 9:40 remaining in the quarter.  Taven Birdow would score on a four yard run while Lakota Wills would score on a five yard blocked punt return in the fourth, however, Robinson would find Willie Wright for a 26 yard touchdown pass to end the scoring and seal the huge win for the Owls.

Air Force will take their 14th ranked (271 yards per outing) rushing attack on the road once again to battle the 60th ranked defense in the nation in the Aggies which are giving up 142 yards per game, however, full back Parker Wilson along with running back Joseph Saucier are both questionable with injuries for Saturday’ matchup.  On the other hand, the Aggies hope to contain a passing attack that averages only 97 yard in the air per game compared to them giving up only 258 total yards to their opponents.  The interesting aspect of this game will be how can the Falcon defense that is ranked 22nd in total yards allowed with 300 per game, stop the dangerous Aggie offense that is putting up over 50 points per game in 2018.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

While I have tons of respect for the rushing attack for the Falcons, I will have to back the Aggies in this game in that they have had some battles this year already as they would lose a heartbreaker to the Spartans of Michigan State in week one on the road while performing outstanding in the next two outings to go above .500 for the season.  And while the Air Force has performed well, their lack of a passing game may cause the Aggies to tee off on their powerful rushing attack, thus rendering them sitting ducks for the home team to stack the box in order to stuff this aspect of their game, altogether.  Look for a great game to be played here, however, I must go with the home team as they have shown that they are tough and dangerous both at the running back along with the receiver position with Thompson and Raymond.

Prediction: Pick:  Utah State Aggies -400

Full-Game Total Pick

I will have to choose the over in this contest as the trends suggest that this will no doubt be a barnburner on Saturday with Utah State certainly controlling the pace of the game.  The over has been the play in all games for the Aggies this season, while the under has been the call in each game for the Falcons; Nonetheless, the Falcons will definitely not quit and will put some points on the board, yet, not nearly enough to make this game close in the end.

Prediction: Pick: Over 59

Full-Game Prop Bet

Utah State has an explosive offense this year that will slowly take control of this game.  With that being said, the Falcons will have some success on the ground early, however, they will certainly find it very difficult to handle the passing attack of the Aggies.  In all, look for the home team to cover the 10.5 points for this game in what I expect to be a high-scoring matchup to where Utah State will shine once again.

Prediction: Pick: Utah State Aggies -10.5

Half-Time Side Pick

Look for both teams to go back and forth early in this matchup as both will excel in the running game as both have playmakers in the backfield.  Also, expect for the Aggies to open their attack with their playmakers on the outside to take a lead at the half.  Again, the Falcons will come to play in this matchup, however, they will simply find it difficult to keep up due to the Aggies overall offensively efficiency.

Prediction: Pick: Utah State Aggies -6

Half-Time Total Bet

The Air Force offense is predicated on ball control, and they will have some success versus an Aggie defense that has given up some yards to their opponents this year.  On the other hand, the Aggies have an explosive offense as their passing along with rushing attack has proven itself to be very dangerous.  In all, expect the total to go above the set amount for the half to where Utah State will possess a lead in a back and forth offensive display.

Prediction: Pick: Over 30.5

Half-Time Prop Prediction

Utah State will possess a lead at the half on the strength of the playmakers that make up their offensive attack.  They will dominate in the trenches early in putting up some scores on a solid Air Force defense,yet, one that has yet to face an offense like the Aggies.  In all, look for the home team to hold the halftime lead in this offensive minded battle.

Prediction: Pick: Utah State Aggies -300

Falepa Emme

A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa's passion for analytics in each of these areas will certainly benefit the reader in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.


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