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Texas St vs. UTSA,
9-22-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#395 Texas State
Bobcats 53
#396 UTSA
Roadrunners -6.5

Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Texas State Bobcats

1 - 2


UTSA Roadrunners

0 - 3


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Where and when:  The Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas, Saturday, 7:00 pm EST

The first-ever meeting versus two teams where their campuses are separated by only 50 minutes in the Texas State Bobcats and the Roadrunners of Texas-San Antonio will take place at the Alamodome on Saturday at 7 pm EST.  The Bobcats will look to atone for their 41-31 road loss last Saturday versus South Alabama as they would not cover the spread of 10 point underdogs while the over of 49 points was surpassed while the Roadrunners would not cover as 20.5 point underdogs in a 41-17 score on the road to the Kansas State Wildcats while the over was the play with the total for the game being set at 46.5 points for the game.  Both teams could use a win as the Bobcats are 1-2 on this young season while UTSA is currently winless in 2018.

Roadrunners no match for Wildcats

The Roadrunners would go down 27-7 at halftime to the Kansas State Wildcats on the road while being outscored 14-10 in the second half en route to a 41-17 loss last Saturday.  The Roadrunners would only have 305 total yards for the game as Cordale Grundy would go 14 of 23 for 108 yards and a touchdown in the loss while DJ Gillins would also get time under center as he would throw for 49 yards along with a touchdown.  Jalen Rhodes and BJ Daniels would combine for 25 rushes for 100 total yards on the ground while Greg Campbell Jr would lead the receiving corps with 41 yards on 6 catches along with a touchdown catch in the loss.

The quarterback position has been very inconsistent for the Roadrunners this year with Frank Harris being out for the season with a ACL surgery, however, the Roadrunners may indeed find some success versus a 101st ranked passing defense for Texas State which allows 262 passing yards per game.  However, the 125th rushing attack in the nation for the Roadrunners may struggle versus a Bobcat defense that is allowing only 123 rushing yards per game for a 41st rank overall.  Nonetheless, the Bobcats are allowing 32 points per game to their opponents while Texas San Antonio should seek much improvement on the scoring end in only averaging 14.7 points per game.

Mistakes give way to loss for Texas State in second half

The Texas State Bobcats would take a 24-16 lead at halftime over the Jaguars of South Alabama last Saturday as quarterback Willie Jones III would not only rush for a 50-yard touchdown along with find Javon Banks for a 42-yard touchdown reception that would put the Bobcats up by a 17-3 score.  Banks would also score on a one-yard run for the Bobcats that would put them up 24-10 at the nine minute mark of the second period while Trae Minter of South Alabama would tighten the lead to 26-16 with a three yard run to end the scoring for the first half.  Texas State would come out in the third quarter scoring yet again with Jones III hitting Hutch White for a 25 yard touchdown pass to put the road team up by 15 points with a 31-16 lead, however, this will end the scoring for the day for the Bobcats as the Jaguars would be sparked by a 55-yard interception return along with two touchdown passes from Ethan Orth to Jordan McCray and Jamarius Way to seal the victory for South Alabama.

Despite having Anthony Smith on the sideline for the season with a torn ACL injury, the Bobcats were able to maintain their 70th rank in rushing yards with 177 yards per game and would love to gain some ground on a Roadrunner defense that allows 174 yards per outing currently to their opponent.  The Bobcats have struggled in the passing game as they rank 103rd in the country in averaging 186 yards per game, yet, may find some success in the air as the air also as the Roadrunners, who are miserable in their passing defense, is allowing 308 yards per game in 2018.  Jones III will certainly need to perform much like he did in the first half versus South Alabama in which to ensure that the Bobcats will pull out a much-needed victory in this contest.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

Each of these teams have not lit the scoreboard up thus far in the year, however, I will have to give the edge to Texas State in this matchup in that they are averaging 24.7 points per game while the Roadrunners allow close to 500 yards per game to opposing offenses in 2018.  With that being said, expect a heavy dose of the running game from the visitors as they will seek to take control of the line of scrimmage early in which to set the tone.  Finally, the Bobcats are ranked in the top 50 in stopping the rush, which should totally shut down an offense that is putting up only 14.7 points per game while averaging only 82 rush yards per outing.

Prediction: Pick:  Texas State Bobcats +220

Full-Game Total Pick

While the Roadrunners have certainly had their problems on offense this year, the Bobcats have also had issues this year as well.  With this being the case, I expect Texas State to win the battle in the trenches while coming out with a win in this matchup; Nonetheless, I will also back the under in this contest in that the road team will score just enough points to get the slim victory.  Despite their better than average rushing attack, the Bobcats are only putting up 362 yards per game for a 101st ranking in the nation, which essentially means that they will eat some clock while imposing their will on the ground, thus meaning that the game will be a low-scoring, yet, competitive affair to where the clock will continue to click.

Prediction: Pick: Under 51

Full-Game Prop Bet

Due to the Bobcats going up against a defense that has proven that it has major troubles stopping opposing offenses from running the ball, I will back the road team in this instance.  Combine this with the fact that the Road Runners have struggled consistently on the offensive end all year long, I happen to believe that Texas State will dominate the trenches in this matchup on Saturday to take control early while maintaining their level of play throughout the game.  In all, I simply have no confidence that UTSA will cover such a spread with an anemic offense along with a defense suffering from inconsistency thus far in the season.

Prediction: Pick: Texas State +6.5

Half-Time Side Pick

The Road Runners have not only struggled defending the run, but, has also had issues defending the pass as well in 2018.  I expect the Bobcats to utilize their run game in which to allow for opportunities in which to get their passing game going early in the game.  And while the Road Runners may put some points on the board during the first half, I see the visitors dominating in the first half due to their ability to maintain their effective rushing attack.  In all, the Bobcats will cover the spread leading up to the half while possessing a lead on the home team.

Prediction: Pick: Texas State Bobcats +4

Half-Time Total Bet

It would be important to note that both teams have not been able to light things up on the offensive end all year.  And while the Bobcats will take control within the trenches early while putting some points on the board early, I expect this game to remain close throughout the first half.  It is for this reason that I will back the under in this contest as both teams will struggle with offensive efficiency as this has certainly been the case in their matchups thus far in 2018.

Prediction: Pick: Under 26

Half-Time Prop Prediction

I will gladly take the Bobcats with the plus money on the road versus a shaky Road Runner defensive along with a wholly inconsistent offense that will find it difficult to score, once again, on a Texas State defense that has done well in preventing the run versus its opponents.  As stated, with the Bobcats ability to run the ball effectively will indeed be the difference in this matchup as they will ride their offensive line in dominating the line of scrimmage on their way to possessing a lead at the half.

Prediction: Pick: Texas State Bobcats +180

Falepa Emme

A true analyst for a variety of sports, Falepa Emme has been a sports enthusiast for decades. His ability to read, learn, write, and constantly think sports will offer a unique perspective to NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL, along with MLB contests. Falepa's passion for analytics in each of these areas will certainly benefit the reader in obtaining more insight into upcoming match-ups.


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