When and where: September 22, 2018, Glass Bowl Stadium, Toledo, OH, 12:00 PM ET
After surviving a near 23-point collapse to Oregon State, the Nevada Wolf Pack will be looking to pick up their third win of the season when take on the Toledo Rockets.
It won’t come easy against a Rockets team seething after getting rolled on their home field by the Miami Hurricanes. One thing is certain: The Golden Flashes will have to play better down the stretch to prove their sustainability after their win over Oregon State came down to a missed 33-yard field goal.
Statement game for Nevada
Nevada has an opportunity to win as many games as they won all last year in the first four weeks of the season. When things started to go wrong, they proved their mettle by not panicking and pulling out a tough win against a persistent Oregon State team, albeit with a little help from a missed field goal attempt.
The only loss the Wolf Pack has so far this season came at the hands of the Vanderbilt Commodores—a team that nearly knocked off Notre Dame, the No. 8-ranked team in the country. That says plenty about the ongoing rebuilding project for head coach Jay Norvell in Nevada for a football program that went 3-9 last season.
They could really make a statement on Saturday by going into Toledo and knocking off the Rockets, who are still reeling from a lopsided loss to Miami.
No sour grapes for Toledo
The final score between Toledo and Miami, 49-24, isn’t a great reflection of the actual game itself.
Toledo hung tough against a superior football team all the way up until the fourth quarter, where their defense gave up two touchdowns. The offense obviously wasn’t equipped to deal with a shootout, and things eventually snowballed down the stretch.
If anything, the loss should instil confidence in them for Week 4 knowing they were able to hang with a top-25 team, rather than being routed and embarrassed on their home field. Nevada may not be a walk-in-the-park opponent, but they also don’t boast the kind of talent the Hurricanes do on offense. This could be the perfect bounce-back week for the Rockets at home.
- Rockets are 9-3-1 in last 13 games in the month of September
- Under is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games after a loss
- Under is 11-4 in Rockets last 15 games after an ATS loss
- Wolf Pack are 0-6 ATS in last 6 games in the month of November
- Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in last 6 games outside their conference
- Wolf Pack are 2-5 ATS in last 7 games after a win
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Reality should set in a bit for Nevada in this match-up on the road against an underrated Toledo team. Their offense was able to move the ball well against the Hurricanes’ defense in balanced fashion, which should also be the case against a Nevada team that has given up 76 combined points in their last two games.
Rockets quarterback Mitchell Guadagni should be able to stretch the defensive backs in the Wolf Pack secondary with his arm, while also chewing up scrimmage yards on the ground with his legs. He’ll be facing a defense that has given up over 1,000 yards of total offense in the last two games.
A big offensive showing from Guadagni will put the Rockets back on the winning track and send the Wolf Pack back to the drawing board.
Prediction: Toledo Rockets
Full-Game Total Pick
There should be plenty of offense in this mid-day showdown, but the end point total won’t climb past 69.5, which is too high of a number even with a pair of problematic defenses on the field. The under is 14-5 in the Wolf Pack’s last 19 games on the road, and for the Rockets, it’s 7-1 in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss. There is no doubt the defenses will struggle in this game, but they’ll manage to keep things somewhat respectable.
Prediction: Under (69.5)