Western Michigan Broncos at Georgia State Panthers
NCAAF: Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 2:00 p.m. ET
After losing their 2nd in a row getting crushed by Michigan 49-3 Western Michigan got into the win column in their last game in a 68-0 blowout win over Delaware State. The Broncos had given up 104 points in their first two games facing Syracuse and Michigan before the shutout win in their last game. This is Western Michigan’s last game before they begin conference play in the MAC.
Georgia State won their season opener, but they have lost two in a row and both losses were bad ones. In losing two in a row to North Carolina State and Memphis they have been outscored 100-29. No shock, even at home, that they are the betting underdog in this game facing a Broncos’ team that put up 68 points in their last game.
This is the first-ever meeting between these teams.
Beating up FCS team
Western Michigan got their first win of the season in their last game beating up on FCS opponent Delaware State 68-0. They racked up 527 total yards (286 passing yards 241 rushing yards), forced two turnovers, and only gave up 123 yards. The Broncos have a balanced attack that ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards per game and 49th in rushing yards per game. QB Jon Wassink has 750 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions and LeVante Bellamy leads the team with 268 rushing yards and three TD. Bellamy may be the key player that Georgia State has to worry about, as he has rushed for at least 65 yards in all three games and even facing Michigan he averaged nearly six yards per carry.
The stats are a little skewed for Western Michigan in their last game facing a FCS school, but Georgia’s State’s only win came facing a FCS school and they only won that game by four points. GSU will likely have to light up the scoreboard to win since their D has been bad in their last two games. On the season the Panthers only rank 114th in the nation in pass defense and 119th in pass defense.
Defense shredded again
In their last game, Georgia State was blown out for the 2nd straight game losing to Memphis 59-22 and it was the 2nd straight game they gave up at least 541 yards. In the Memphis loss, they gave up 679 yards including giving up 410 rushing yards. The Panthers used three QB’s in the game and Destin Coates led the team with 68 rushing yards. Coates has rushed for 111 yards in his last two games and Georgia State needs to establish the run, but to do that they cannot get down big early. While the Panthers are balanced it is not good balance ranking 99th in the nation in passing yards per game and 100th in rushing yards per game. Dan Ellington will likely get the start under center in this game and after a solid first game facing a FCS foe he has failed to pass for over 200 yards in each of his last two games and in that span has no TD and an INT.
The Panthers will get a shot to put up some points on a Western Michigan defense that only ranks tied for 106th in the nation giving up an average of 34.7 ppg and that is even after a shutout win in their last game. While the Broncos have been pretty solid against the pass they have played running teams and their run D only ranks 122nd out of 129 FBS teams.
Notable Trends
The Georgia State Panthers are:
- 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September
- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
The Western Michigan Broncos are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game
- 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games
- 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in September
- 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Have to go with Western Michigan giving 7.5 points in this non-conference game even though they have played bad run defense. I can’t go with Georgia State considering they do not rank in the top 98 in the nation in pass or run offense or pass or run defense. The Panthers may run the ball well, but the Broncos will light up the scoreboard. I don’t think this game will be a major blowout, but Western Michigan will get the win and cover the spread and send Georgia State to their 3rd straight loss.
Prediction: PICK: Western Michigan
Full-Game Total Pick
Have to take the Over in this one, as in each team’s two losses they were blown out and defense will be at a premium in this non-conference affair.
Prediction: PICK: Over
