Saturday afternoon on the college gridiron and we will see a pair of teams from the Big 12 Conference square off as the 9th ranked Texas Longhorns rumble with the Texas Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. the Longhorns have played just one game and they won that contest by a score of 59-3 over UTEP. Texas Tech also has played just one game and they won that contest by a score of 35-33 against Houston Baptist.
These teams met last year and Texas won that game at home by a score of 49-24. They were favorites of 9.5 in the game and the OU line was set at 65.5.
The line for this contest has stayed flat most of the week with Texas coming off as a -17.5-point favorite here. 64 percent of the bets are backing the Longhorns giving the points. In addition, 97 percent of the bets on the moneyline are backing the Longhorns.
The over/under has ticked upward for this game from the 69 point total at opening. It now has climbed to 70.5 points with the over garnering 80 percent of the wagers.
Game-time Weather: In a word: hot. Game-time temperatures are slated to be in the mid-90s under sunny skies. There is no rain in the forecast for this one. Winds are expected to be out of the south-southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour with the gusts trending up toward the 20 mile per hour mark Saturday.
Who Will Stop This Offense?The Texas Longhorns are ranked in the top 10 at the moment and I would expect them to be a fixture there all year long. I will also expect them to face Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game at the end of the season but that is for another time. Texas went just 8-5 last year but with 1716 starters back this year, they are primed for a big season. Texas began their year with a bang as they topped the UTEP Miners at home by a score of 59-3. The offense was a very good one last year as they averaged 35.2 ppg and this year's edition will be even better with seven starters back, including QB Sam Ehlinger. Last year, he threw for 3663 yards with 32 TDs and just 10 INTs and he started out this year by throwing for 426 yards with five TDs. He has thrived against Big 12 defenses, throwing for 6189 yards with 44 TDs and just 17 INTs in his first three years against them and that includes throwing for 899 yards with seven Tds and two INTs in three games against the Red Raiders. He could have another field day against what looks to be another weak TT defense.
The Longhorns lost their top two wide receivers from last year but they have been deep at this position for years and stepping up in the opener was Joshua Moore, who had six catches for 127 yards and a TD. He is only a sophomore, so you can expect Moore to be terrorizing Big 12 defenses for three years. The Longhorns were very average on defense last year as they allowed 27.5 ppg but they have nine starters back on that side of the ball and will be vastly improved. The Longhorns will face a much tougher offense than the one they did in their last game, so it will be a good test to see how much improved this defense is. Against UTEP, they allowed just 223 yards of total offense.
OUT: DL Marqez Bimage, RB Derrian Brown, WR Dajon Harrison, WR Kennedy Lewis, WR Troy Omeire, WR Jake Smith, OL Willie Tyler, WR Jordan Whittington, RB Daniel Young
Questionable: DB Josh Thompson
The Red Raiders Look To Take A Step ForwardThe Texas Tech Red Raiders had three losing seasons in a row in Kliff Kingsbury's last three seasons at the helm and he was let go at the end of the 2018 season. Last year, Matt Wells took over and the Red Raiders went 4-8 on the season, including just 2-7 within the Big 12. They are hoping to take a step forward this year and they do come in ranked as the 4th most experienced team in the Big 12. Despite that, the Red Raiders did not get off to a great start. Yes, they did beat Houston Baptist at home but the Red Raiders were 40 point favorites in the game and they won by just two points. That can not be a confidence-inducing win, especially when they are about to face one of the best teams in the nation. The offense last year averaged a full TD less than the year before and they are hoping that with six starters back, the offense will again flourish. It will have to in this game as the Longhorns will certainly get their points.
Alan Bowman is back at QB and that is a huge plus after he played in just three games a year ago. Despite that, he still threw for 1020 yards and six TDs with three INTs in those games. In the game against HBU, he threw for 430 yards with two TDs and one INT. He will look to have a big game but it will not be easy as the Longhorns have a solid secondary. This will be his first career meeting with the Longhorns. The WR Corps has three of its top four receivers back and in the opener, they were led by KeSean Carter, who had six catches for 89 yards. The Red Raiders are not normally a good running team but they did rush for 194 yards with SaRodorick Thompson leading the way as he rumbled for 134 yards and two TDs. The defense has been horrible for the Longhorns for a million years and even with eight starters back this year, it doesn't look like it will get any better. In the win over HBU, the Red Raiders allowed 600 yards of total offense, including 572 yards through the air. Ehlinger has to be licking his chops at facing this defense.
OUT: DB Dequanteous Watts
Questionable: WR McLane Mannix, LB Colin Schooler, QB Donovan Smith, RB Xavier White
Texas Tech is:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September
- 8-2 ATS the last 10 games in this series
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Red Raiders are just not a very good team, just like last year. They lost last year's contest by 25 points and Texas is a better team than they were a year ago. The Longhorns have a dynamite offense that will take advantage of a defense that allowed 572 yards passing to an FCS team last week. Sam Ehlinger will have a field day against this offense. Texas is not all about scoring as they come in with one of the better defenses in the Big 12. The Longhorns will not keep the TT offense off the board, but it will do enough to keep them from covering while the Texas punter will be able to take the day off. Lastly, Texas has gone 5-0 ATS the last five meetings between these teams here in Lubbock.
Prediction: Texas -18
Full-Game Total Pick
Last year's game put up 73 points and the year before, we saw 75 points between these teams. This year, we could see this game top 80 points. The Longhorns will have one of the best offenses in the nation this year with Sam Ehlinger back for his senior season along with six other starters. He will have a field day against a TT defense that allowed 572 yards passing to Houston Baptist, which is a DII team. Yikes. That is not good for the Red Raiders but great for us. The Longhorn defense has nine starters back this year but they will not completely contain a Texas Tech offense that always scores well at home. The Over is 9-1-1 in Texas Tech's last 11 games as an underdog and that seals the deal for me.
Prediction: Over 69.5