For another look at today’s game, check out our short video:
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Missouri
When: Saturday, January 12, 2019 4:35 pm Eastern
The AFC Divisional round of the 2019 NFL playoffs begins Saturday afternoon and we have the making of a great game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts reached this round of the playoffs by defeating the Houston Texans, 21-7 in the AFC Wild Card round. The Chiefs have a 12-4 record and are AFC West Champions. I’m excited to be previewing this game for you.
The Colts Blast Houston
The Colts have had an interesting season; after a shaky 1-5 start to their season, the Colts reeled off nine wins in their last ten games, reached the Wild Card round, then defeated Houston 21-7. Andrew Luck threw for 222 yards, two touchdowns and one interception and Marlon Mack rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown to lead the Colts over the Texans in Houston. It was a huge road win for an unlikely playoff team.
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) January 6, 2019
The Colts aren’t listing any significant injuries for Saturday’s game with the Chiefs.
The Colts score an average of 27.1 points and 386 yards of offense per game. 278 of those yards are passing yards and Luck is mostly responsible for this. Luck has thrown for 4,593 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and has been sacked 18 times this season. Luck has also rushed for an additional 148 yards this season.
Indianapolis averages 107 rushing yards per contest and Mack leads the Colts with 908 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 195 carries. Mack has an additional 103 receiving yards and one touchdown this season.
Eleven Colts have at least 100 receiving yards this season, but T.Y. Hilton is the man Luck looks to the most; Hilton has 1270 receiving yards and six touchdowns this season and Eric Ebron has 750 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns for the Colts this season. Head coach Frank Reich has done a nice job utilizing his weapons this season.
“If it’s running it for 200 or throwing it for 400, I’m always going to say the same thing, we are trying to score every time we touch the ball and we are going to game plan and call the game in a way to score points,” head coach Frank Reich said on Tuesday, via Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan. “We are really not trying to think so much about, ‘Well, let’s hold the ball and keep it from them.’ We want to run it. There’s no secret about that. That does keep them off the field. That would be great. But at the end of the day, the primary goal is score points.”
Indianapolis allows an average of 21 points and 339 total yards per game. The Colts rank sixteenth in passing yards allowed (237) their 101 rushing yards allowed per game in eighth in the National Football League. The Colts rank nineteenth in the NFL with 38 sacks and ninth in the NFL in interceptions (15) this season.
Mahomes Spectacular Season
The Chiefs were having a storybook season; running back Kareem Hunt was released from the team for legal issues and the Chiefs finished the season with a 3-2 record. Even without Hunt, the Chiefs might not be the best offensive team in the National Football League, they are still pretty darn good, and the Colts defense is going to have their hands full on Saturday afternoon.
We have worked tirelessly to get to this point. Now, it’s time to roll. #LetsRoll
AFC Divisional Game | Sat., Jan. 12 | 3:35 pm CT | NBC pic.twitter.com/yMLhFOBZLt
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 4, 2019
Kansas City isn’t listing any significant injuries for Saturday’s game with the Colts.
The Chiefs led the NFL in points per game (35.3) and total yards per game (425). Kansas City averaged 309 passing yards and the man mostly responsible for the is quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes threw for a whopping 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and was sacked 26 times. Mahomes also rushed for an additional 272 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Kansas City averages a total of 115 yards per game and with Hunt’s departure, the Chiefs are relying on a pair of running backs to get the job done; Damian Williams has 256 yards and four touchdowns with an additional 160 receiving yards and two touchdowns and Spencer Ware has rushed for 246 yards, two touchdowns and an additional 224 receiving yards this season.
Nine Chiefs have at least 100 receiving yards this season; wide receiver Tyreek Hill has 87 receptions for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns and tight end Travis Kelce has 103 receptions for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins has also made an impact with 519 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season. Defensively, the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid is going to have to account for Andrew Luck.
“[Quarterback] Andrew Luck, it’s great to have him back in the game and going” said Reid. He’s had a great year and you’ve got to stay persistent with him. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that we’re going to do this and that, but you’ve got to bring your best against him and do the best you possibly can every play.”
The Chiefs defense ranks thirty-first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (405) and their 24 points allowed leaves the Chiefs twenty-fourth in the NFL. Kansas City is thirty-first in passing yards allowed (273) and the Chiefs 132 rushing yards allowed per game is twenty-seventh this season. Kansas City leads the NFL in sacks (52) and has 15 interceptions with three of those picks going for touchdowns.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Colts are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This might be an unpopular suggestion, but the writing is really on the wall. While everyone has been fawning over the Chiefs, the Colts have been quietly going about the business of winning games. The Chiefs passing defense is atrocious and something Luck is going to be able to exploit. Mahomes is great, and he will get his, but the Colts I think will be able to stop him enough to cover the spread. I will be hoping the spread rises in the Chiefs favor, and be all over anything six points or more in the Colts favor.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +6 Points
Full-Game Total Pick
All signs are pointing towards a shootout in Kansas City on Saturday. We have two offensive minded football teams up against to below average defenses. We also have good rushing offenses with quarterbacks that know how to get things done inside and outside of the pocket. I am really looking forward to this game and I think we will see a combined total of 70 points or more. I will be playing the over in this one on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Over 57 points