Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
When: Sunday, January 13, 1:05 PM. ET.
The New England Patriots will be trying to advance to their eighth consecutive AFC Championship Game when they face the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon.
Chargers Trying To Exorcise Their Demons
Since Philip Rivers became their starter, the Chargers have not defeated the New England Patriots during the regular season and playoffs, despite having some very good teams. With most of the players from those teams gone, Rivers will try to snap his seven-game losing streak to the Patriots when they play on Sunday.
Phil >>>> pic.twitter.com/FaDqxfcTug
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) January 8, 2019
The Chargers played well offensively this season, averaging 26.8 points per game. In the last round, they scored 23 points against the best defense in the NFL and will go into this game with a lot of confidence.
Rivers had a great season for the Chargers, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,308 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Melvin Gordon led the team in rushing with 885 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Keenan Allen led the team in receiving with 97 catches for 1,196 yards and six touchdowns.
Gordon left their game against the Baltimore Ravens with a knee injury and has been listed as questionable for this game. If he is unable to play, the Chargers will turn to Austin Ekeler, who finished the regular season with 554 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chargers played well defensively during the regular season, holding opponents to 20.6 points per game. They held the Ravens to 17 points in their last game and will need a similar effort to beat the Patriots for the first time with Rivers at quarterback.
Patriots Trying To Stay Perfect At Home
The Patriots were two different teams when they played at home and when they were on the road during the regular season. The team won all eight home games, but only managed three wins on the road this season.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 4, 2019
They will be hoping their strong play at home continues when they face the Chargers on Sunday.
Offensively, the Patriots played well this season, averaging 27.3 points per game. They played well in their regular season finale, scoring 38 points against the New York Jets.
Tom Brady led the team in passing, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Sony Michel led the team in rushing with 931 yards and six touchdowns, while Julian Edelman led the team in receiving with 74 catches for 850 yards and six touchdowns.
The Patriots also played well on the defensive end, holding opponents to 20.3 points per game. They held their last three opponents to 10.6 points per game and will need to keep up the intensity to beat the Chargers.
New England is:
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Divisional Playoffs games.
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Los Angeles is:
- 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Updated on Jan 12 at 11:55pm EST
Update prepared by our editoral staff
Public Money / Line Movements
The line opened at New England -5 and moved to -4. The total started at 47.5 and remained there. The public is betting on the Chargers at 56% on the spread and 68% on the money line.
Injury / Weather Report
The weather in Foxborough is expected to be 25 degrees and partly cloudy
TE Hunter Henry (knee) is probable. NT Brandon Mebane (personal) is questionable. RB Melvin Gordon (knee) is questionable.
DB Duke Dawson (hamstring) is questionable. WR/KR Cordarelle Patterson (knee) is questionable. D Devin McCourty (concussion) is questionable.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Patriots have played well against the spread, winning six of their last seven divisional playoff games and four of their last five January games. The Chargers have struggled against the spread, losing five of their last seven games after allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game and six of their last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Prediction: New England Patriots -4
Full-Game Total Pick
The total has gone under in Los Angeles’ last four playoff games and in four of the team’s last five games. The total has also gone under in New England’s last four home games and in eight of the team’s last nine overall.
Prediction: Under 45.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Chargers will go over 21.5 points in this game because they scored 23 points against the Baltimore Ravens, who have the best defense in the league, in the wildcard game and they have also scored more than 21.5 points in five of their last six games.
Prediction: Chargers – Total Points Over 21.5
Half-Time Side Pick
The Patriots will win the first half of this game because they have outplayed the Chargers in the first half of their last three games, averaging 14 points per game while the Chargers are averaging 7.3 points per game.
Prediction: New England Patriots -3
Half-Time Total Bet
The Patriots and Chargers are averaging 21.3 combined points in the first half of their last three games and they will stay under the total in the first half of this game if they maintain their current scoring pace.
Prediction: Under 22.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
The Patriots outscored the Chargers in the first quarter during the regular season, averaging 5.5 points per game while the Chargers averaged 4.9 points per game. However, the Chargers will be the first team to score because their offense is playing well right now and the Patriots typically defer to the second half when they win the coin toss, increasing Los Angeles’ chances to score first.
Prediction: Team to Score First Los Angeles Chargers +110