Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
When: Sunday, January 19, 3:05 PM. ET.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be trying to advance to their first Super Bowl since 1969 when they host the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon.
Titans Going For Third Consecutive UpsetThe Titans have defied expectations by making it this far after clinching their spot in the playoffs in the final week of the regular season. They knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions and the top overall seed in the playoffs and now have their sights set on the AFC West winning Chiefs, who are once again favored to win the game.
Tennessee has gotten this far on the strength of its ground game and a very good defense. Derrick Henry has been a workhorse for the Titans in the second half of the season 1,273 yards in his last eight games while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He has rushed for 377 yards and one touchdown in two playoff games and will be expected to carry the offense once again.
The Titans and Chiefs met in the regular season, with the Titans getting a 35-32 win. Henry finished with 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries in that game and should be able to put up similar numbers in this game because the Chiefs haven’t played well against the run this season.
Ryan Tannehill, who provided a spark for the team since taking over the starting quarterback job, hasn’t been asked to do much in the playoffs, thanks to Henry’s performance. However, he might be required to do more in this game, especially if the Chiefs jump out to a big lead.
Even though they gave up 530 total yards, Tennessee’s defense did a great job in their win over the Ravens, forcing three turnovers and making the Ravens settle for field goals when they were in the red zone. The approach worked for them in their first meeting with the Chiefs and they will have to find a way to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone to give themselves a chance to win this game.
Chiefs Trying To Take Advantage Of Golden OpportunityKansas City’s head coach Andy Reid is one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, but his teams tend to suffer letdowns in big games. They were upset by the Titans in the Wildcard round of the playoffs in 2018 despite having a 21-3 lead at halftime and looked like they were headed for another early exit against the Houston Texans in their last game.
With the Titans knocking off the Ravens and Patriots, the Chiefs have their best chance to make it to their first Super Bowl since 1969 and will need to play well for the entire game if they do not want to mess up a great opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.
Kansas City’s offense struggled in the first quarter of their win over the Texans, but the team roared back from a 24-0 deficit in the second quarter and took the lead for good at the half. With the Titans coming off a beat down of the Ravens, who were the top offensive team in the league, the Chiefs probably won’t be able to mount a similar comeback if they fall behind in this game, so expect them to get off to a fast start.
Patrick Mahomes threw for yards and three touchdowns in their first meeting with the Titans which was his first game back after missing two games with a knee injury. The offense stalled in the red zone multiple times, forcing the team to settle for field goals. This time around, with the team playing at home, expect a better performance from the MVP.
Kansas City’s defense will be the key to the team’s victory. They struggled in their last game, giving up 31 points to the Texans, and gave up 35 points in their regular-season loss to the Titans. If they can’t do a better job defending the run, they will be in for a long day and will likely lose this game.
The top supporting trends for this game, found on Oddsshark.com, are: Kansas City is:
- 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
The top supporting trends for this game, found on Oddsshark.com, are: Tennessee is:
- 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
- 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Titans have pulled off two consecutive upsets in the playoffs thanks to a dominant running game led by Derrick Henry, who has 377 yards and one touchdown in their last two games. With two of the best defenses in the league unable to slow down the bruising back, the Titans will once again focus on running the ball and try to keep Kansas City’s offense off the field by controlling the clock. Even though the Chiefs held opponents to 19.3 points per game during the regular, their defense isn’t getting a lot of respect going into this game, especially after giving up 31 points to the Texans in their last game. They struggled against the run during the regular season, giving up 128.2 rushing yards per game, and Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries in their regular-season meeting.
Even though they have a quick-strike attack that can help them get out of a big deficit, which they showed against the Texans, the Chiefs can’t afford to let the Titans jump out to an early lead in this game because they will have to contend with Henry the rest of the game. This time around, the Chiefs will try to avoid a slow start and jump out to a big lead, which will force the Titans to abandon the run and put the game in Tannehill’s hands as they did with Deshaun Watson and the Texans in the last round. With the Titans giving up over 400 yards to Mahomes in their first meeting, expect the Chiefs to have another big game through the air. However, they can’t afford to settle for field goals like they did in the first meeting if they want to get the win.
Even though Lamar Jackson accounted for over 500 yards on offense for the Ravens in the last round, the Titans picked up the win because they forced the Ravens to turn the ball over three times while they avoided making mistakes. The Chiefs did a good job protecting the ball during the regular season, turning the ball over 15 times, which was tied for seventh in the league. If Mahomes and his teammates avoid turning the ball over, they should be able to pick up the win.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -7
Full-Game Total Pick
The Titans have done a good job defensively in the playoffs, which allowed them to stay under the total in both games. However, they are facing a Kansas City team that looks to be in sync right now, scoring 82 points in their last two games, 51 of which came against the Texans in their last game. Kansas City’s defensive problems also reappeared in their last game with the team giving up 31 points at home. Even though they played significantly better in the second half, giving up only one touchdown, they will struggle to keep the Titans’ offense in check because they haven’t shown that they can stop the run and gave up almost 200 rushing yards to Henry in their last meeting. With both teams playing well offensively and scoring 67 combined points in their last game, it is safe to assume they will go over the total once again on Sunday.
Prediction: Over 53
Half-Time Side Pick
The Chiefs will cover the first-half spread in this game because they have outplayed the Titans in the first half of their last three games, averaging 18.3 points per game while the Titans average 14 points per game.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -4
Half-Time Total Bet
The Chiefs and Titans are averaging 32.3 combined points per game in the first half of their last three games and will go over the first half total in this game if they maintain their current scoring pace.
Prediction: Over 25