The Buffalo Bills (4-1) will host the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas Chiefs (4-1) on Monday. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season. Kansas City lost 40-32 as an 11 point favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. It was the Cheifs first loss since losing to the Titans on November 10, 2019, on Week 10 of last season. The Bills lost 42-16 as a three-point favorite to the Tennessee Titans in a game that was played on Tuesday night due to rescheduling for issues related to COVID-19.
This will be the first head-to-head meeting for these two franchises since 2017 when the Bills defeated the Chiefs 16-10 as an 8.5-point favorite.
(Injury reports and line movements are updated as of Sunday morning.)
There has been only slight movement on the line in this contest. After opening as a three-point favorite, the Chiefs currently stand as a five-point favorite at most sportsbooks. 66 percent of the bets against the spread are backing the Chiefs giving the points.
The over/under for this game has climbed a bit this week. After opening at 55 points, the current total has bumped up to 57 points as of Sunday afternoon. Bets on the total are split evenly at 50/50 as to which side of the number this game will fall.
Game-time Weather: It's going to be a wet, chilly kind of game, which you'd tend to expect in mid-October in the Western New York area. Temperature at kickoff is expected to be around 50 degrees with the real-feel temperature in the high-40s. Rain is in the forecast: there is a 50 percent chance around kickoff and hovers around that number throughout the contest. The real-feel temperature will drop into the mid-40s as the game continues. Winds are expected from the northeast around seven miles an hour with the gusts topping out about 10 miles per hour.
Chief 13 Game Winning Streak EndsThe Chiefs are 4-1 on the season, after losing their first game straight up and second game against the spread to the Raiders on Sunday. The loss snapped the Chiefs 13 game winning streak, dating back to the playoffs and regular season from last year.
The Chiefs are eighth in the NFL, averaging 29.8 points per game and seventh allowing 22 points.
The Chiefs are seventh in total offense with 412.8 yards per game, and the defense is 14th in the NFL, allowing 356 yards. The 2018 NFL MVP and last year's Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is second in the league behind Aaron Rodgers with an 86.1 QBR. Mahomes has completed 63.7% of his passes, is averaging 294.8 passing yards a game, and has thrown 13 touchdowns against only one interception. Mahomes has also rushed for 129 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards an attempt.
"We won't ever forget this day. We'll see them again. We'll be ready." 🎙 @Mathieu_Era— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 12, 2020
Mahomes' top targets in the passing game are tight end Travis Kelce (32 catches, 405 yards, 3 TDs), and Tyreek Hill (35 catches, 364 yards, 4 TDs). The running game is lead by rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and leads the team with 344 rushing yards this season.
The Chiefs were outgained 490 to 413 in total yards against Las Vegas, with each team turning the ball over once. Mahomes completed 22 of 43 passes for 340 yards with two touchdowns, one interception, and was sacked three times. Mahomes also added 21 rushing yards and a touchdown. Travis Kelce caught passes for 108 yards and a touchdown in the loss.
Anthony Hitchens leads the defense with 37 tackles, and defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the team with 3.5 sacks. Hitchens is questionable for Monday's game due to a hand injury.
OUT: DB Alex Brown, DE Mike Danna, G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, T Lucas Niang, G Kelechi Osemele, T Martinas Rankin, FB Anthony Sherman, DB L'Jarius Sneed, WR Sammy Watkins, RB Damien Williams
Questionable: LB Anthony Hitchens, TE Ricky Seals-Jones
Turnovers Kill Bills in NashvilleAfter starting the season 4-0, the Bills were dominated by the Tennesse Titans on Tuesday Night. With the game tied a 7-7, the Titans outscored the Bills 35-9 after the first quarter. Turnovers led the way as the Bills gave the ball away three times, due to two interceptions thrown by Josh Allen and a lost fumble by Andre Roberts. The Titans did not commit any turnovers for the game. Despite the 26 point loss, the Bills outgained the Titans 370 to 334 in total yardage.
The Bills are 11th in the NFL, averaging 27.8 points per game and 21st, allowing 28.4 points.
Led by Josh Allen, the Bills offense has shined, ranking fourth in the NFL with 425 yards per game. Allen has thrown 14 touchdowns and three interceptions on the season and is averaging 317.8 yards per game passing. Allen doubled his interception total for the season by throwing two on Tuesday, while also tossing two touchdown passes and completing 26 of 41 passes for 263 yards. Stefon Diggs led the Bills with 10 catches and 106 yards on Tuesday, increasing his season total to 36 catches and 509 yards. Devin Singletary leads the team with 238 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per carry. Singletary was held to just 25 yards rushing on 11 attempts against the Titans.
Defensively the Bills are 20th, allowing 381.1 total yards per game. The Bills pass defense has been a weakness, ranking 27th with 280.3 yards allowed, compared to the rush defense, which is eight allowing 101 yards. The Bills did a solid job against Titans running back Derrick Henry, holding him to 57 years and just three yards a carry; however, Henry still found paydirt twice.
OUT: CB E.J. Gaines, WR Isaiah Hodgins, TE Dawson Knox, DT Star Lotulelei, LB Del’Shawn Phillips, TE Tommy Sweeney, CB Levi Wallace
Questionable: WR John Brown, LB Tyrel Dodson, LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Jon Feliciano, LB Matt Milano, G Quinton Spain, CB Tre'Davious White
- Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
- Chiefs are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I have to take the defending Super Bowl champions coming off of a loss. The Bills have the sixth-worst passing defense in the NFL, and that's a bad recipe for going up against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have only lost against the spread twice since November 10, 2019. The Chiefs are 13-1 straight-up over that stretch with 12 of those wins coming by seven points or more, and the other win coming by three points against the Chargers this season. Seeing that the Cheifs also have two extra days to prepare, I will take them to cover on the road.
Prediction: Chiefs -3
Full-Game Total Pick
The total here is high, but this game does feature to the top four quarterbacks in the league according to passing yardage. The Chiefs could also be without their leading tackler Anthony Hitchens in this game. With both teams allowing 40 points in their last game and the firepower on both sides, I will take the over in what I expect to be a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Prediction: Over 55