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New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction,
and Odds - 10-18-2020

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#267 New York
#268 Miami

Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 4:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

AFC East action here as the suddenly resurgent Miami Dolphins host the spiraling 0-5 New York Jets. It's been a real disaster of a season for the Jets, and it looks like only a matter of time before Adam Gase is fired. It's unclear whether Joe Flacco or Sam Darnold will start for the Jets, but oddsmakers don't think it makes a difference as they've already posted the number.

(Injury reports and line movements are updated as of Sunday Morning.)

Line Movements:

Miami opened this game as an 8.5-point favorite when the lines came out. That line has climbed slightly as we've seen Miami stay as a 9.5 to 10-point favorite as of Sunday morning. 57 percent of the bets against the spread are on the Dolphins to cover the line.

The total for this game opened at 47.5 points. Since then, it has moved to 46.5 or 47 points depending on the sportsbook. As it stands, 63 percent of the bets on the total are looking for this one to stay under the mark, likely due to the Jets' ineptitude offensively.

Game-time Weather: Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the low-80s with the real-feel temperature reaching 90 degrees. There is about a 35 percent chance of rain at kickoff with cloudy skies. The chances of rain reaching the coin flip around 6 pm ET with thunderstorms in the area, which could impact the contest. Winds are expected out of the northeast at 10 to 15 miles an hour with wind gusts kicking up to near 20 miles per hour.

Jets Limping Into This One

Nobody had super high expectations for theNew York Jets, but they've still managed to be a massive disappointment. They've lost all five games to open the season, and head coach Adam Gase looks like a dead man walking. All that being said, they did open with a very tough slate of opposing defenses in the Bills, 49ers, and Colts. The one time they got to play a team on their level, they nearly beat the Broncos in a game that came down to the wire. There are also reasons for optimism on the health front. Injuries have absolutely decimated the Jets, but it looks like they could get some guys back for this one.

Breshad Perriman, projected by many to be the top receiver entering the year, may return from his ankle injury here. They might also get stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton back here, which would be huge for their struggling offensive line.Jamison Crowderhas been a big bright spot and just returned from an injury of his own, and he's gone over 100 yards in all three of the games he's played in this season. It's unclear if Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco will start at quarterback here, but it doesn't matter for point spread purposes. There's often value in fading perception in the NFL, and perception of this Jets team is at an all-time low. It won't feel great, but there could be some opportunities to back this team against inflated numbers moving forward.

Injury Report:

OUT: CB Kyron Brown, WR Josh Doctson, CB Bryce Hall, WR Chris Hogan, OL Leo Koloamatangi, LB C.J. Mosley, LB Patrick Onwuasor

Doubtful: T Mekhi Becton, QB Sam Darnold, WR Denzel Mims

Questionable: CB Bless Austin, LB Blake Cashman, T Cameron Clark, DL John Franklin-Myers, OL Alex Lewis, CB Arthur Maulet, DL Steve McLendon, WR Vyncint Smith, DL Quinnen Williams, DL Jordan Willis, DL Jabari Zuniga

Dolphins Pick Up Huge Win

TheMiami Dolphinslook like they could once again be a pleasant surprise in 2020. In the first season of the Brian Flores era last year, they put up a lot more fight than people expected, and they've been defying odds yet again. They've now won two of their past three games, with the only loss coming to the Seahawks. They recently crushed the 49ers, quieting the chorus of calls for rookie Tua Tagovailoa to replaceRyan Fitzpatrickat quarterback. Flores has done a great job changing Miami's culture, but it's not all good news. Their other win this season came against the lowly Jaguars, and their victory over San Francisco should come with several asterisks.

The 49ers plain aren't nearly as good as they were last year, and they're also missing about half their team due to injuries. Fitzpatrick is as volatile as it gets, and it shouldn't surprise anybody if he completely melts down the game after showing out. They've been getting gashed on the ground by just about everybody and are allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per carry to opposing ground attacks. The Dolphins are a team that can often catch better teams sleeping, but they don't fare as well in a favorite role. The Dolphins are just 21-46-1 against the spread in their last 68 games as a home favorite.

Injury Report:

Out: LB Vince Biegel, WR Antonio Callaway, DT Davon Godchaux, WR Allen Hurns, T Austin Jackson, DE Jonathan Ledbetter, WR Albert Wilson

Questionable: S Bobby McCain, RB Malcolm Perry, TE Durham Smythe, LB Kyle Van Noy

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

It won't feel great, but you have to bet the Jets here. This number has become wildly inflated due to public perception, and getting more than a touchdown against the Dolphins is ridiculous. Miami's two wins have come against the Jaguars and an injury-depleted mediocre 49ers team, and they never play as well as favorites as they do as underdogs. This feels like a classic letdown spot for Miami following their big win, while the Jets are hungry not to get embarrassed again against their division rivals. I like New York at this money line price as well.

Prediction: Jets +9.5

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Full-Game Total Pick

I think the under also makes some sense here. I think Fitzpatrick will have a down game like he often does after he has a great game, and the Jets are still incredibly banged up on offense. Miami's run defense has been poor so expect to see the Jets lean on the ground game, which will keep the clock churning here. There's no love lost between these division rivals, and I think we'll see a pretty physical game here. New York has been moving the ball at a pitiful rate, and it's not like this Miami offense is overflowing with talent either.

Prediction: Under 47

Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.

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