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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars,
10-21-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#467 Houston
Texans 44
#468 Jacksonville
Jaguars -3.5

Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Houston Texans (3-3) travel to Jacksonville Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3). Houston is coming off a tough win over Buffalo while the Jags got destroyed by the Cowboys. Kickoff for Sundays game at TIAA Bank Field is scheduled for 1:00 pm Eastern.

Houston Finally Putting it all Together

Despite a shaky start to the season, the Texans have won three straight games. They look to make it four in a row but to do so they will have to get past a tough Jacksonville defense and of course the home crowd at TIAA Bank Field.

Deshaun Watson seems comfortable for the first time since returning from injury. He’s thrown for 1798 yards, nine TD’s, seven interceptions and has been sacked 25 times this season. He’s also rushed for 203 yards and one TD. WR’s DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller IV have three TD’s each and Hopkins leads the team in receiving yards (657). RB Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 271 yards on 73 carries and Alfred Blue has 188 yards and one TD on 56 attempts.

The Texans have struggled a bit converting third downs and are currently converting 35 percent of them. Houston is converting 60 percent of their fourth downs and have scored on just 34 percent of their Red Zone possessions. If that number were higher the Texans record might be better.

The Texans defense has been solid this season, allowing 343.8 yards per game, 299 passing yards and 109.2 rushing yards. Teams have converted 41 percent of their third downs and a whopping 80 percent of their fourth downs. Teams have also scored TD’s on 72 percent of their Red Zone possessions this season. The Texans have 15 sacks and five interceptions including one for a pick six!! Houston has recovered five fumbles and have taken one of those fumbles to the house!!!

Jags Have Been Blown Out on Consecutive Weeks

Jacksonville is coming off a 40-7 thumping at the hands of the Cowboys and despite all the problems this NFL Football team allegedly has, this is still a pretty good football team.

Blake Bortles takes a lot of heat from fans and critics alike, but he is probably the most mediocre QB in the National Football League. Bortles has thrown for 1674 yards and nine TD’s, eight interceptions and has been sacked 14 times this season.. Bortles has rushed for 188 yards and one TD so he can run but that doesn’t make up for his mistakes. WR Donte Moncrief and WR Keelen Cole lead the team with 39 targets, RB T.J. Yeldon leads the team with three receiving TD’s and WR DeDE Westbrook leads the team in receiving yards (387). Yeldon has rushed for 299 yards, one TD and a fumble.

There isn’t any news on injured RB Leonard Fournette but the Jags are hopeful he can suit up for this Sunday’s game (late edit: he’s now listed as out).

Jacksonville converts 43 percent of its third downs and 50 percent of their fourth down chances. The Jags also score TD’s on 38 percent of their Red Zone possessions. Much like Houston, the Jags would have a better record if they were able to get that number up a bit.

The last two games aside, the Jags have what many consider to be the best defense in the National Football League.  The Jags defense allows 306.5 total yards per game, 279 passing yards and 103.3 rushing yards. Teams convert 32 percent of their third downs, 40 percent of their fourth downs and teams have scored TD’s on 47 percent of their Red Zone possessions   The Jags defense has tallied 15 sacks and three interceptions including a pick six. The Jags have also recovered two fumbles this season.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

This game could either be exciting to watch or a dud. At this point I’m not sure which but one thing I’m pretty sure about, is that the Jags are better than what they’ve shown over the past two weeks. Getting blown out twice in a row isn’t going to sit well with the Jags and I feel like the Jags defense will come out guns blazing and give the Texans offense fits. Maybe if Fournette returns it will spark the anemic offense enough to take some of the pressure off of Bortles.

The Texans have been on a roll but they have yet to see the type of defense the Jags usually display. I say usually because that defense hasn’t shown up over their past two games. I feel like it will and if it does the Jags should win this game by a TD. Play the Jags and lay the 4.5 on Sunday!

Prediction: Jacksonville -4.5

Full-Game Total Pick

I really like the Houston offense and I like the Jags defense. That being said this Texans team is too good offensively to not score at least two TD’s and maybe even three against the Jags. While I’m not a big fan of the Jacksonville offense, they are at home and after the past two anemic offensive outputs over the past two weeks, Bortles is going to want to come out and make things happen. Especially in front of the home crowd.

I have this game at 28-21 with Jacksonville winning. That right there is more than enough to cover that extremely low total. I feel like this is the best play for this game. Play the over and take that winning ticket to the counter on Sunday!!!!

Prediction: Over 42.5

Phil Naessens

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