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New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears,
10-21-2018 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#453 New England
Patriots -2
#454 Chicago
Bears 50

Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The New England Patriots head to Chi-town to take on “Da Bears” on Sunday at Soldier Field. While the Patriots are coming off of their biggest wins of the season, Chicago dropped a heart-breaker to the Dolphins in Miami.  Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky tried to put things in perspective after the loss . . .

The teams have only met 13 times throughout the years with New England having won nine of those, including the last four, but it was, of course, the Bears than won the biggest match up of all, beating the Pats, 46-10 shuffling their way to the Super Bowl XX title.

Patriots Playing Better

It has been a suspect start for the defending AFC Champions, as they dropped early road contests to both the Jaguars and the Lions.  Since then, the team has rebounded with three straight victories and now sit tied atop the AFC East with the Miami Dolphins, whom they have already beaten, 38-7 this season.

The game against the Chiefs was a wild back-and-forth affair with neither team ever leading by more than 11 points on the way to the Pats kicking a field goal as time expired for the 43-40 victory.  Brady was 24-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown while surprisingly throwing for only one touchdown, but no interceptions. He did rush for another though and Sony pitched 106 yards on the ground and two scores himself.  The two squads combined for nearly 1,000 yards with the Patriots getting 500 of them themselves.

On the season the Patriots are averaging 389.5 yards a game, while the Bears are allowing only 17 points less. This will be one of those match ups of offense vs. defense and while defense normally does win championships, this is just the regular season.

Bears Looking to Bounce Back

After blowing a 20-3 lead en route to a one-point loss to the Packers in the season opener, the Bears reeled off three straight victories and seemed like the team to beat in the NFC North. Then this past weekend happened, a 31-28 overtime loss to the Dolphins and suddenly they find themselves in a three-way tie atop the division and just a single game on top of the bottom-feeding Lions.

The defense allowed a touchdown with 3:01 remaining to allow the Fins to take it to OT and it was a missed field goal of their own that set up Miami for the win as they kicked the winner as time expired in OT to avoid yet another tie in this young NFL season.  Trubisky threw for 316 yards, and three touchdowns in defeat, but also had an interception. Jordan Howard managed 69 yards on 14 touches while Taylor Gabriel led the way receiving with 110 yards on five grabs.

The Bears offense is actually only earning seven fewer yards per game than that of New England’s high-powered attack and just 1.5 points less. The advantage they have is the defense is allowing five fewer points per game than the Patriots. If the squad can rid the home-side momentum and play solid D, they will turn this into quite the contest.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

While the defense will be a tough test for Brady and company, the team is just too hot right now to not be considered a favorite in this one.  As a matter of fact, they should be favored to cover the spread.  The Bears defense just did not play like themselves against the Dolphins and while some may blame the heat and humidity of Miami, the reality is that these are professional athletes that should be able to show up and play on any day in any location.  They showed this past weekend, that they cannot.

Prediction: Patriots -3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

As seen on Sunday night, the New England offense can be prolific, but not against this Bears defense in the windy city. Do not expect Tom Brady to be out there just having a field time this time around. The Bears offense has improved but they are still no world beaters.  The Under has hit in five of the last six games the Bears played in after a loss and five of the last six Patriots road games. It has also hit in 12 of the last 15 games in which New England played on grass. The smart play is to stay away from the Over on this one.

Prediction: Under 49.5

Chuck D

Chuck Dowling is a 30-something University of Florida J-School alum that lives in his mother’s basement. Just kidding... there are no basements in Florida (the ground is too moist). He has been in the “biz” for his entire adult life and specializes in NCAA football and basketball, as well as soccer, boxing, and MMA. When not writing, Chuck moonlights as a high school athletics radio and internet-television broadcaster.


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